The winning continues! I went 3-1 last night, which makes our overall record 12-6 in NBA Free Picks this week! Gotta love that. It’s getting sunny and warm in the Northeast; what’s not to be happy about?! Happy Friday!
Celtics/Bucks over 235 (-110), 1 .5 units: My favorite play on this game is still the over, even after winning this exact same bet 2 nights ago (albeit when the line was at 230, but still). Check out my article from Wednesday on why I think this is such a solid bet. It was my play of the night then and it might be again Friday. I see no reason why this game wouldn’t fly over the total. Look for more defense early and then a lower live total line to take advantage of, too. The pendulum will swing back, mark my words.
Suns -4 (-110), 2 units: On Wednesday I jumped on the opportunity to let the gambling world know that the line (-3) looked awfully sneaky on the Denver/Toronto game. I thought the Raptors were a live dog and as it turned out, boy were they ever. And now we’re seeing quite the line adjustment here as the Suns are mere 4 point road favorites after that ass-whooping Toronto put on the Nuggets. I’m happy to take advantage. The Raptors are a very solid team and I think they’ll be sneaky if they make the playoffs. When they’re healthy and hot, they’re tough to beat. Toronto plays highly disciplined defense and they’re very well balanced; no one ego or star is too big for the team. We saw the result of that reality 2 nights ago, but let’s take a closer look at that game again. Denver was in a tougher spot, on the road and coming off a game just one night before at Orlando, where they squeaked by with a win. The Raptors were in prime position– back at their new home in Tampa, rested, and all of their players were finally healthy after a long COVID/injury disruption to their roster. Spirited and ready to end their losing streak, the Raptors shot 50% from the field and from beyond the arc and overwhelmed the Nuggets early. Denver wasn’t ready or motivated enough for that effort. The result was a beat-down and 24 point win. And now I think it’s time to fade Toronto. Phoenix just had a bad loss to Orlando and comes into tonight nearly done with their road trip– only one more game left on Sunday against a LaMelo-less Charlotte squad. The Suns won’t be intimidated or thrown off by the way the Raptors play. Phoenix plays slow, methodical and efficient and they really lock players down on defense. The Raptors are built to stifle and surprise rhythm teams like the Nets and Nuggets, not the Suns. Their style will play right into the hands of a Phoenix team who wants to get back to their winning ways now that LAL is without Anthony Davis and Lebron. There are new openings in the VIP seats of the Western Conference and the Suns want in. I’ll take the Suns to cover on the road, and it just might be with ease.
Rockets/Timberwolves over 229 (-110), 1 unit: Well if anyone can help the Rockets offense it’s the 26th ranked Minnesota defense. With Oladipo gone, the Rockets now have a better idea of who they are and how they have to grow moving forward. Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk could be nice additions for Houston and the team may be a little less distracted, too. Let me be clear– do I think Houston is now a better team without Oladipo? Hell no. But clarity helps and now they realize who their one and only star is: John Wall. Let’s work on cultivating his abilities in that offense, shall we? Minnesota ranks 28th in points allowed per game, while the Rockets come in at a cold 23rd. While neither team is blazing the court with high powered offense, they both routinely allow teams to score in the 120s and they play at an equally quick tempo, ranked 4th and 5th in overall pace. I see this as a 123-119 type of game so I’ll go with the over for a humble unit.
Games to Watch, not Bet: Grizzlies vs. Jazz (Lean, Grizzlies +10) and Pelicans vs. Nuggets (Lean, Nuggets -2.5): This Utah number is too big, in my opinion, but I can’t bet it since Memphis will be playing their 5th game in 7 days tonight and could see some fatigue. The Jazz are also awfully good at home. I’ll be curious to watch how well Memphis plays in this spot. The Grizzlies are quietly on a little tear right now. They’ve won 3 straight games and they’ve looked really good on both ends of the court against formidable opponents. Let’s see how they stack up against an elite, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept this game closer than expected. The Jazz just played the Nets B team 2 nights ago in a game that was never competitive and this will be a doubleheader against the Grizzlies. Memphis could catch em sleeping, at least in the 1st half (I’m talking myself into a 1 unit bet here, might do it). The Pelicans look good recently and just eked by Denver a few nights ago in a close battle. Denver just got trampled by the Raptors as their road trip continues. I’d take Denver for the revenge angle here but it’s a tough one to feel confident about. I’ll be excited to just observe and take notes on these two games.
Lean, Magic +9.5 (-110): Are the Blazers better than Orlando? Definitely. Can the Magic keep up with Portland’s high-octane offense? Probably not. But should the Blazers be 9.5 point favorites on the road against Orlando? No, that’s a little much. I realize Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are gone as the Magic look to their future, but like I said about the Rockets, sometimes the end of a trade deadline can fire up a team. Can’t bet it, but I think that line is inflated. If this were 7.5 to 8.5, I’d be all over it.
Lakers total points over 105.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a good spot for a little LAL resurgence. Last night we took the Lakers total under 105 and cashed, but this game is entirely different. Cleveland is really hurt and Kevin Love won’t play tonight. Cleveland displays a pedestrian defense, at best, that will look worse than its marginal stats Friday because of all their injuries. Kuzma and Schroder and Morris are due for some positive regression along with the rest of the Lakers’ offense as they try to navigate this new territory in the wake of his Lebron’s absence. Make no mistake, the Lakers are still talented, so they’ll only get better on offense (especially with Lebron steadily advising them off the court). Marc Gasol returns tonight, who should provide an uptick in production, and he’s a good front-court facilitator for the offense, too. I like the Lakers side in this game (-4) but I like the total bet even more. Time to LAL to figure some shit out and Coach Lebron should have his team ready to feast on a lesser Cleveland unit.
