Well there’s a ton of games in the NBA today and for us, that means a ton of opportunity! I went 15-9 in NBA picks last week (63%) and I’m 107-77 (58%) overall in NBA picks since February 1. That’s a good sample size and I hope you’ve all benefited from it. Let’s tackle a big Monday in the association.
Pacers -5 (-105), 1 unit: The Pacers aren’t known for creating much margin between them and their opponents, even when winning, so I don’t love this number. Though I do feel like I have to take it because of the spot and situation-advantage for Indiana. Their clunker against Milwaukee aside, the Pacers have had some really good wins recently. They beat Detroit, punked Dallas, and beat up on the Heat twice at Miami. Because of that, they’re now grouped with the best teams in the NBA at #14 in point differential. They’re also among the best teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency, ranked just shy of the top 10 at #11. The Wizards, on the other hand, are not feeling the same good vibes. Washington most recently won against the lowly Pistons but it came at a price– Bradley Beal left the game early with a hip injury. His chances of playing don’t look great tonight. Overall, with or without Beal, the Wizards haven’t look good since the All-Star break. Now losers of 8 of their last 10 games, Washington will have to turn around and host Charlotte at home tomorrow night, too. The Pacers are balanced and good with or without the ball in their hands. Against a Washington team that’s limping into tonight, I like Indiana’s chances more than usual. I’ll take a small shot on the Pacers to cover.
Pelicans/Celtics over 229 (-110), 2 units and Lean, Pelican win (+120): One of the prevailing issues of the Boston Celtics is one of the most obvious– they’re small. Injuries to Tristan Thompson and Semi Ojeleye haven’t helped, but even when fully healthy the Celtics are never sharks at the rim. That’s an issue when you run into the New Orleans Pelicans. In case you’ve been under a rock, you’ve seen Zion Williamson’s talents on full display this season. The 2nd year star is quickly becoming one of the NBA’s premiere players to watch. Veteran Steven Adams and Zion are tough to stop when the opposition doesn’t have front court size or exceptional talent. Because of that, I think the Pelicans will be able to push the pace and assert themselves down low throughout his game. Increasing in tempo steadily since the beginning of the season, New Orleans is now right in the middle of the NBA in pace rating at 18th (Hollinger Stats, ESPN). Expect that level to keep climbing tonight. Lately Boston hasn’t matched well against any offenses, though. Their defensive efficiency rating has now dropped to 21st overall and they allow over 111 ppg. And look at their past 10 games. Teams not named the Nets are routinely dropping over 115 points on the Celtics. The Pelicans can certainly score 120+ and since Boston is the favorite this game should at least be close. I’ll hammer the over. I also lean a money-line win on New Orleans because of the big mismatch at the center and forward positions.
Timberwolves/Nets over 239.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Well, hopefully this wager is obvious. Only the Wizards and Kings are worse than the Timberwolves at points allowed per game. I mean, the Rockets dropped 129 points on Minnesota 2 days ago. That’s really bad. Brooklyn isn’t much better at #26 overall in points allowed. Kevin Durant isn’t ready just yet, but Kyrie and Harden and the other key offensive contributors are healthy and after 3 days of rest, Brooklyn gets to play at the Barclays center for their next 3 games. That’s a sure-fire-recipe for offensive success tonight and it’s hard to imagine this total staying below 240 points. Books are shy to post totals larger than 240 but it’s not that momentous in today’s NBA, especially not with the soft defenses and talented shooters that most teams are equipped with. I’ll take advantage.
Grizzlies -8 (-105), 2 units: Well I can’t help but pull the trigger on this one. The dark, abysmal, ice cold Rockets finally got a win 2 nights ago! Actually they get off the schneid recently against the Raptors but still, any win is a big win for Houston at this point. A nice game from Kevin Porter Jr. and 12 assists from John Wall were too much for Minnesota and their horrendous defense. Of course the Rockets also shot 54.3% from the field and a crazy 46.2% from beyond the arc. Needless to say, that won’t repeat Monday. The up and down Grizzlies don’t always live up to their potential but they’ll feel like a big difference in class tonight for Houston. Memphis quietly has one of the more stifling defenses in the NBA and despite a record that’s teetering on missing the playoffs, it’s the biggest reason why Memphis should be taken seriously. They’re mid-tier in points allowed the game but in Hollinger’s adjusted team ratings, they own the 7th overall defense. The Grizzlies dropped their last 2 games against Utah, which is pretty typical. Like the Knicks and Pacers and many mid-tier teams, Memphis can’t hang with the NBA’s elite but they can beat up on bad opponents. I’m sure Houston feels good about themselves heading into tonight but an angry Memphis team will out-perform the Rockets in every facet of the game. And they need to. In 2 nights they get another shot at the Jazz and they can’t afford to rack up too many losses at this point in the season. The Grizzlies are 57% ATS after a loss and 57% ATS on the road. Bet Memphis to cover.
Warriors +1 (-110) if Curry Plays, 1.5 units: Stephen Curry was just upgraded to questionable, which I’m hoping means he’ll play, but I wouldn’t bet this if he’s a late-scratch. Wait until you hear more absolute information about this game. If he does play, the Warriors are a better team than the Bulls, especially at home. I’ve been waiting for opportunities to pounce on this point, but Chicago is no better or has no potential more than any other mid-tier, young team that’s too reliant on one player. And unfortunately that player is Zach LaVine. I like LaVine; he seems like a good kid and he’s a great athlete. But I’m not sure how great of a leader he is and I know he’s not a pure shooter. He reminds me of Ben Simmons (though I think Simmons is a considerably more talented facilitator). He’s big, explosive, and he can really make an impact in a lot of different ways. As a rebounder, on defense, etc., he’s definitely a value-add. I just don’t think he’s built to lead a team into the playoffs. Do you know who is? Steph Curry. Curry adds an element of offensive talent that’s not limited to just his shooting. He’s a constant distraction for the opponent’s defense, a great leader on and off the court, and he’s a better passer than pundits give him credit for. The Warriors also boast a top 10 defensive efficiency rating on Hollinger’s metrics and I think they’re a horrible match-up for a rhythm dependent team like Chicago. Golden State has also lost 4 in a row and this is a prime-spot back at home, where they’re 13-9 straight up and 12-10 ATS. Fingers crossed for Curry!
