The Suns/Lakers game very nearly hit the under last night which would have made me a perfect 8-0 so far in March. I’ll take 7-1 and over 11 units any day, though. Let’s “march” on into our hump day NBA picks!
Pacers -5 (-110) *if Domantas Sabonis plays, 1.5 units: The Pacers were in a bad spot against the Knicks Saturday and Philadelphia Monday so we’re not very affected by those losses. Indiana cannot hold their own against the big boys of the East but they can, and usually do, conquer teams like the Cavaliers. The big question here is the health of All-Star center Domantas Sabonis. The big man is questionable Wednesday night and would leave a big hole in the front court if he can’t play. He’s worth a price adjustment but this line tells me that the books suspect he’ll give it a go tonight. The Cavs winning streak is hokey (2 wins against the horrid Rockets and a win against Atlanta before they fired their coach? Not impressed). Watch the injury report and take the Pacers with confidence if Sabonis is in.
76ers +2 (-115), 1.5 units: Are the Jazz falling back to earth? The hottest team in the NBA has now lost 2 of its last 3 games, falling once to an improving Heat team in Miami and then to the Pelicans in New Orleans. Their road stretch continues tonight before heading home to clobber the Rockets on Friday. As it stands, the 76ers won’t rule out Tobias Harris returning tonight to face Utah but if he does, that would mean a completely healthy roster for Philadelphia. Even without Tobias, the Sixers play great basketball at home. Because I fear a Jazz team that can turn around a game in a flash, I’m favoring the half-time line here (something I did yesterday on Memphis and won in the 1st quarter and 1st half). Philadelphia has tough road games following tonight at Chicago and Washington, but I think they come out motivated to beat a Jazz team that’s had everyone talking. Now more than ever, that fuels professional athletes. Bet on Philly to bring it in the first half.
Lean: Hawks -2.5 (-110): This is a lean because I’m not ready to bet on the Hawks just yet but they seem rejuvenated after firing Lloyd Pierce. Sometimes that’s the change a team needs. The Magic can’t win at home but they’ve faced some elite teams in Orlando lately like the Jazz and Nets. Once Atlanta gets some key players back (Reddish, Capella) and healthy, they could be a contender again. Orlando seems in disarray. If I had to bet this, I’m on the Hawks.
Bulls/Pelicans over 237 (-110), 1 unit: I’m only going 1 unit here because the Pelicans can be so up and down (remember when they scored 13 points in a quarter? I do), especially on the offensive end, but this game has the potential to go into the 250s on paper. Chicago’s front court is not impressive, so Zion should be able to impose his will for every minute he plays. Zach LaVine should score a ton against a Pelicans’ team that’s very shallow on defense, particularly at the guard position. Both teams play at a fast tempo (New Orleans’ stats are skewed because they started off the season playing much slower) and both teams struggle on defense. Give me an over where two stars should shine.
Hornets/Timberwolves over 233 (-110), 1.5 units: What makes the T-Wolves so bad? It’s hard to pinpoint just one thing. This is a good spot for them to squeak in a win, but I like the over tonight even better. Neither of these teams play good defense (Charlotte allows 113.5 ppg and Minnesota allows 116.5 ppg) and both rely on shooting and turnovers to stay in games. Not exactly a great recipe, thus the records indicate. I like this even more because the Hornets are on a brutal 6 game road stretch that ends tonight. They just played in Portland on Monday, the furthest city to travel to on the NBA map, and tomorrow they host the lowly Pistons. That makes it very likely that they’ll want to get in and out of Minnesota tonight, which usually amounts to a bad effort on defense. The Timberwolves have to travel to New Orleans tomorrow and may be looking ahead, too. Take the over, and if Cody Zeller sits tonight (he’s questionable at the moment), I would bet on Karl-Anthony Towns to go over 25.5 points (-116 at Bovada).
