Well it wasn’t the most sterling start to the week for yours truly last night (Pacers, really?) but we got a few good wins in there to make up for an overall losing night at 2-3. At 58% overall, we expect better things tonight. Let’s do it!
76ers +5 (-105), 1.5 units: As far as line movement goes, this is going against my best judgement. It started at Denver -4 and now it’s gone all the way up to Denver -5 with some extra juice. And I get why it’s moving. The 76ers are on a brutal 6-game road stretch right now that finally comes to an end on Thursday. And now they have to face the new-look Denver Nuggets with Aaron Gordon added to an already very talented roster. Gordon is a better role-player than a star and he should shine with his new squad. The Nuggets now have extremely talented players at every position of their starting lineup. With a roster that’s already deep, that’s a scary thought for their opponents and I think it makes them a real contender deep in the Western Conference playoffs. I actually liked them a lot before that trade so it’s even more true now. That being said, both the Nuggets and Sixers are on fire right now. The Nuggets have won 10/13 of their March games. The Sixers– 10/12. What’s most impressive about Philadelphia’s run is they’ve done it without their MVP-leading candidate Joel Embiid. Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Seth Curry and others have shown how deep Philly’s roster is and insured their team during Embiid’s absence. The 76ers still have the best record in the Eastern Conference because of it. I think this spot actually favors the Sixers more than the books want you to believe. For example, Philly has had 3 days to rest. This is also the last game the Sixers have to “get up for” on their road trip. Their final away game is against Cleveland on Thursday- yawn -and may serve as a let down spot or rest spot for Doc Rivers’ team. The Nuggets? They have to travel to LA on Thursday to face the Clippers, their Western Conference nemesis. The Clippers have looked sensational lately, winning their last 6 games and looking like the Lakers’ biggest competition come playoff time. The Nuggets could very well be looking ahead at that contest and underestimating what Philly can bring tonight. These are two well-balanced teams that play well on both sides of the court. Both have big, strong bodies and both front courts will battle at the rim. This has “close-game” written all over it so I can only go with the dog keeping it within 2 possessions. Bet the Sixers.
Suns -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Hawks/Suns under 220 (-105), 1 unit: This is a pretty perfect setup for Phoenix. The Hawks are in the middle of a long road stretch and they haven’t performed well, losing 3 of their last 5 games. The Suns, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 games and although they have the Bulls tomorrow night, they’re on a 3-game home stand that concludes with the Thunder (not scary) and then they travel to Houston (really not scary). Not a bad week. This is also a great matchup for the Suns stylistically. Atlanta runs at a bottom-third NBA pace. Phoenix is one of the slowest at 28th overall. The Hawks are an up and down, inconsistent offense that’s mid-tier at best. The Suns have a top 10 offense and top 5 defense according to Hollinger’s adjusted efficiency stats and they only allow 107 ppg, which is 3rd best in the association. They’ve only allowed 100.6 ppg in their last 6 games (they may be getting better..), and one of those games went to overtime. To make matters even worse for Atlanta, the Suns are fully healthy coming into Tuesday and the Hawks are very injured. Bogdanovic, Dunn, Gallinari, and Reddish are all out for Atlanta, while Capela and Hunter are banged up. The line is coming down a little on this game and I say let it drop! I’m all over Phoenix.
Magic/Clippers under 215 (-115), 2 units: We have to lay some extra VIG here but I don’t care– this is a sure-under game if you ask me. The Clippers are getting better and better on defense, now ranking top 10 overall in adjusted efficiency and only allowing 101.8 ppg during their latest 6 game winning streak. After losing some key offensive contributors, the Magic are getting worse. Orlando has averaged only 101 ppg in their last 5 contests and they’re rated as one of the worst 4 offenses in the NBA. Their defense has held up okay, they’re mid-tier, but it makes sense that taking all this into consideration, only 45.6% of their games have gone over the total this season. The Clippers and Magic are in the bottom third of the NBA in tempo as well. We’re stacking up the data, folks! If some of the LAC stars sit in this game, I like it even more. Bet the under.
