I would say I’m sick of typing “I went 3-1 or 4-1” here but that couldn’t be further from the truth. After another 3-1 day we’ve gone 18-5 the last 5 days and I have no plan of stopping before the season ends. Handicapping and predicting the playoffs will be tough but at least we don’t have to question motivation! Onto Tuesday’s plays:
Nuggets -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: It’s really unlikely that Denver will lose their position in the 4th spot of the Western Conference playoffs. They’re a solid 4 games ahead of Dallas and they have an easier schedule: Charlotte tonight, followed by Minnesota, Detroit, and then Portland to cap the regular season. One more win would lock them in at 4th, but I don’t like their side tonight for any of those reasons. While it could add extra motivation, Denver will be inspired to play Tuesday because of their recent failures. The Nuggets dominated the NBA in April but they’ve now lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4 entering tonight. Their recent losses were formidable– they dropped games to a resurging Lakers team, to the Nets and to the Jazz, the #1 team in the West. Still, Denver doesn’t want to enter the postseason on a lull. The Hornets are a solid basketball team and they’re at home, but these are the kind of games they’ve blown all year. While they can compete with and sometimes beat up on mid-tier teams, they’re no match for a team like the Nuggets. As a unit, Denver is top 10 in assist ratio, rebound ratio, effective field goal percentage, true-shooting percentage, and offensive efficiency. Their defense also allows the 9th fewest points per game. Aaron Gordon is probable to return and I expect the leading MVP candidate Nikola Jokic to impose his will tonight. I’m on Denver with confidence.
Timberwolves -7 (-115), 2 units: This is one of my favorite bets of the day. The Timberwolves, unlike most non-playoff teams, still love playing basketball. Sure sure, they recently dropped games to a few superior opponents, but lately we’ve seen a burgeoning from these young talented Minnesota players. It’s exciting to think about how good they could be in the future. D’Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards round up an athletic and explosive group of performers, each regularly scoring in the double-digits, that are incredibly fun to watch. They’ve collectively laid waste to bad teams like Orlando, Houston, and Sacramento recently, and they’ve even pulled off victories against the Warriors and Jazz (they actually beat Utah twice in a row). If the Pistons had Jerami Grant back tonight I might be less inclined to bet the Timberwolves’ side here, but I just don’t see how they don’t get another big win. Detroit has been getting manhandled by mid-tier teams and with all their young studs healthy and looking to put on a show, this amped up Minnesota squad should do it again tonight.
Nets -4.5 (-115) if Durant/Kyrie play, 2 units: Don’t overthink this. The Nets are somewhat stumbling into the end of their season, losing 4 out of their last 5 games. Saturday’s comeback win against Denver was sweet, but I don’t think Durant and Kyrie are done. The Nets led the Eastern Conference for a large amount of the season and now they’re in danger of losing the 2 seed. Nut uh, I can’t see it. The Nets know how integral that 1 or 2 seed is, the road to the Finals looks significantly less challenging from the top, and they’re not about to let a fat and sassy Bulls team affect their chances. Chicago has played well lately but forgive me if I’m not overly impressed. Recent wins against the Hornets, the volatile Celtics and the Pistons don’t excite me. LaVine and Vucevic are good; they’re not Kyrie and Durant good. I realize the Nets don’t play great defense (neither does Chicago), but offensively these two teams are on different planets. As long as Brooklyn doesn’t have some kind of cataclysmic shooting night, this one shouldn’t be close.
Lakers -5.5 (-115) if Lebron is back, 2 units: I love the Knicks, hopefully you all know that from reading my posts, but it feels like New York is running full speed into a buzz-saw tonight. This is not a hype-article propagating the Lakers’ triumphant and redemptive playoff run about to happen– I really don’t see it this year– but all signs point towards a symphony of events coming together just in time for Tuesday’s showdown. First, the Knicks just got a huge win against the Clippers Sunday. Grinding through a long road trip where they recently lost to the Nuggets and Suns, the Knicks seemed undeterred Sunday, out-playing and out-defending the Clippers for 48 minutes (much to the chagrin of Kawhi and company). Although still a game or two away from cementing their official spot in the playoffs, that victory certainly helped their chances. The rest of their schedule isn’t easy but it’s doable– they finish off against San Antonio, Charlotte, and then Boston. The Knicks will win at least one or two of those contests and they know it. Tonight, on the final leg of this insanely arduous road trip, New York faces a very hungry Lakers team. Fresh off a massive game from Anthony Davis (42 points, 12 rebounds) against the Suns, King James is set to make his glorious return and, shocker, suddenly the Lakers are looking very healthy. Their only missing piece is Dennis Schroder, but he should be back by playoff time. The Blazers have a really difficult ending to their season with games against Utah, Phoenix, and Denver down the stretch. The Lakers road looks much easier: New York tonight and then Houston, Indiana and New Orleans. Portland is only 1 1/2 games ahead of LAL, meaning it’s very reasonable to imagine LAL sitting in the 6th spot instead of Portland at season’s end. All the motivation, players, and situational spots are right on target, while the Knicks probably just want to go home. If Lebron plays, I expect a big Lakers win.
Kings -10.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Kings are a lot like the Timberwolves– they still enjoy playing basketball. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 games and the Thunder have mailed it in. Two days ago the Kings handily beat OKC by 28 points. Why wouldn’t that repeat? It’s an overly-simple handicap but it’s worth 1 unit for me to wager.
