Another 3-1 night and now we’re 21-6 the last 6 days of NBA betting! Not counting any chickens before they hatch and staying humble, let’s knock on as much wood as we can find and keep putting out sharp plays, shall we? We shall. Onto my hump day picks:
Wizards/Hawks over 238.5 (-110), 2 units: Well this is an auto-play at this point. Like I said in my last write-up, Bradley Beal’s absence isn’t great but it doesn’t completely inhibit the Wizards from scoring. Washington scores and scores fast because of their pace of play and because of Russel Westbrook’s masterful facilitation skills. The Wizards haven’t clinched anything yet and while it’s unlikely the Bulls can take them out of the 10th place and final play-in spot, they’re not looking at this or any game as a contest they can afford to lose. Washington has moved up to 4th overall in points per game and the Hawks, for what it’s worth, are an exceptional 8th overall in offensive efficiency; aka they’re no slouches on the offensive end either. The over is 6-0 ATS in the Wizards’ last 6 games and 4-0 ATS in Atlanta’s last 4 games. I can’t see this not going over again tonight, but crazier things have happened.
Celtics -6 (-110), 2 units: Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart have been added to the injury list and are out tonight, but I care not. After bad two losses to the Heat and now losers of 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5, Boston is stumbling into the postseason and they need to correct that, fast. No team wants to enter that cold. Expect a big game from Tatum tonight as the Celtics travel to Cleveland to take on a team that has been astoundingly bad ATS: over their last 14 games, the Cavs are 1-13 against the spread, and 8 out of those 13 losses have been by 16 points or more. It’s glaringly apparent that Cleveland has said bye-bye to the 2021 season; Boston needs to take advantage. And let’s put it this way– would you rather bet on Cleveland to cover at +6? No, no you wouldn’t. In the overanalytical world of sports betting, sometimes that’s all you need to ask yourself. I expect a double-digit win tonight, regardless of Boston’s missing pieces.
Lakers -11 (-115) if LeBron plays, 1.5 units: The Rockets have been covering more games lately but on the season, they’re a wretched 25-44 ATS. It’s rare any NBA team finishes below 40% ATS but Houston is locked into 36% and here comes the rejuvenated Lakers. I’m thinking that ATS number will keep dropping. Once again, it looks like King LeBron will suit up and play tonight (please God) and this bet depends on it. The Lakers won a tough-fought game last night against the Knicks, as we figured they would, and now they get to stay at home and face one of the worst teams in the NBA while fighting for that precious 6th spot in the West. In case you didn’t see my tweet earlier today, LAL could easily dethrone Portland for that 6th place. The Blazers have the Jazz, Suns and Nuggets remaining on their schedule; those are all games they could lose. Meanwhile lady luck clearly favors the 2020 champs as the Lakers will battle against the Rockets, Pacers and Pelicans to finish off their season. Advantage LAL. There’s virtually no chance (never say never) that the Lakers will allow themselves to blow this game and I expect them to put in max effort as they continue to gain steam and eye the postseason.
