The white hot streak of 75-80% winning days came to an end last night after I went 0-2 in NBA picks. The Celtics? Wow. That was truly pathetic. And for the first time in a long time a Wizards total didn’t hit the over. Lightning rarely strikes twice in the same spot and we expect some good ol’ fashioned positive regression tonight. Onto my Friday-Eve picks!
Pacers +9 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a sneaky line and it’s sneaky for a reason. The Pacers are quietly playing better these days, winning 3 of their last 4 games against some damn good opponents (Philly and Atlanta stand out). With just a few games left in the regular season, Indiana has an outside shot to still earn the 8th seed in the play-in tournament, which would mean the Pacers get a shot at only playing one game to earn their spot (the 9th and 10th seeds must play 2 games, no matter what, to get into the playoffs). During this last week of action, we’ve seen better effort on defense and exceptional play from Domantas Sabonis and Chris LaVert; i.e., the Pacers won’t be an easy out for Milwaukee tonight. The Nets will finish their season against the Bulls and Cavaliers while Milwaukee is still 1.5 games back from Brooklyn in the East. That all but secures the #2 slot for Brooklyn, so reality is likely settling in that the Bucks will enter the postseason in 3rd and thus will face a much tougher road to get to the finals. Playing away from home and with less to compete for, I like the Pacers to keep this game close. Sprinkle some money-line action? I just might.
76ers +2.5 (-110), 2 units if Embiid plays: This probably won’t be a popular pick but this is based on the likelihood that Jimmy Butler will not play tonight. I also need big man Joel Embiid to be in the lineup. Even if he isn’t I think the 76ers could win this game. The Heat are as tough as it gets and they’ve played really well lately. Miami has won 6 of their last 7 games thanks to their consistent defensive play and veteran leadership from Butler and Adebayo. The reality is, despite the fact that many of us felt the Heat making the finals last year was an aberration, it’s clear now that it wasn’t. Miami has all the tools you need to win a championship: great defense, superb leadership, lethal shooters, and they’re well-coached and committed to team basketball. No one ego is too large. While I love the Heat, I think this is a spot for Philadelphia to flex a little. Joel Embiid sat out 2 nights ago against Indiana, a game they lost, and the 76ers only need one more win to earn the #1 seed in the playoffs. While they could rest and earn that win in one of their final matchups against Orlando, why not do it early and rest your star players for those 2 meaningless games? I can see that being their philosophy tonight, especially since a win against Miami would just mean more. Jimmy Butler got poked in the eye and sat out in the 2nd half against Boston, with concerns over a possible concussion starting to circulate. That sounds to me like he’s not playing. The 76ers could and should take advantage– I’m on Philly for the cover and I’ll probably put a unit on them to win straight up, too.
Spurs +5.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Spurs/Knicks under 216.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. The Spurs need this win much more than New York. The Knicks clinched a playoff berth last night without playing, I’m sure they didn’t hate that, and now they get to chill at home to finish off the season knowing they’ll be in the postseason for the first time since 2013. Time to celebrate, no? Probably not. New York wants to keep winning because they still have a shot at eclipsing Atlanta or Miami for the 4th and 5th seeds. The 6th seed kinda sucks– they’ll have to face an angry Bucks team with home court advantage. Although I doubt that intimidates the Knicks, that’s still more imposing than getting the Hawks or Heat. Be that as it may, I still think the Spurs can cover here. San Antonio is still the best road ATS team (64.7%) in the NBA and they have two games against the 2nd place Suns to finish their season. The Kings have 2 games against the Grizzlies and one game against the Jazz to cap off their season, also not an easy stretch, so one win should secure the 10th place spot for San Antonio. Win or lose, I think the Spurs give this an all-out effort tonight. It helps that the Knicks have announced a bunch of key players, including Derrick Rose, as questionable Thursday. I’ll ride the Spurs and I’ll put a small play on the under here, too. With a playoff feel and the kind of defense these two teams can play, I don’t expect many easy shots tonight.
T-Wolves +2.5 (-115), 2 units: The Nuggets really don’t need this game and they’re on the road. While I don’t think they’ll mail it in early, Jokic has been getting extended time on the bench and they certainly don’t seem to care about covering games. I’ve said it on TheOddsBreakers podcast and in previous articles– despite their disappointing season overall, Minnesota is having fun and playing good basketball right now. They’re a threat to any team they face. Their young talent is healthy and gelling and they’re at home; what a better way to end the season than to compete with one of the best teams in their conference. I like the Timberwolves side tonight and I like it enough to lay down 2 units.
Bulls -10.5 (-110), 2 units: I hate a Bulls team favored this much but it makes sense. Chicago is at home, they need to win out to make the playoffs, and the Raptors are sitting everyone that matters (VanFleet, Lowry, Siakam, Anunoby, etc.). Besides their game against the motivated Nets, Chicago has played really well recently, especially with LaVine back in the lineup. They should blowout the Raptors C team tonight.
