We’re 11-6 on the week– let’s get more wins!
Nets/Bucks first quarter over 62 (-110), 2 units: I’d love to pick a side here but the reality is we’re stretching it if we think one team has any real advantage. Sunday is the start of two games at Milwaukee with a day of rest in-between, although Brooklyn does start a rough road stretch here (they’ll have to travel to Dallas, Denver, and then Chicago on this week’s tour). Both teams will start all their stars (sans James Harden, of course), although Giannis has been nursing an ankle injury as of late. The Greek-freak rested in the Bucks’ last game against Chicago, where they still got a nice win, and now should be primed and ready for this showcase matchup. The total is set at 244, which feels dead-on, and the Bucks should be favored since they’re at home and hungry to gain some steam in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee plays better defense than Brooklyn but these teams are largely mirrors of each other. They both like to play with tempo (Milwaukee is 2nd, Brooklyn is 11th), they’re the top scoring teams in the NBA (Milwaukee is #1, Brooklyn is a very close #2), and they’re both extremely efficient on the offensive end of the floor (Brooklyn is 1st, Milwaukee is 5th overall according to Hollinger’s metrics). Because big-time battles like this can lead to more cerebral endings in a playoff-like atmosphere, I’d rather take a shot on an early over in the 1st quarter. Both squads should come out fired up and ready to put on a show, which usually means points, points, and more points. I love the first quarter going over 62.
Hornets +5 (-110), 1.5 units: I don’t know if Charlotte will win this game, but I’m pretty impressed by how they’ve remained in contention even without LaMelo Ball and while they’ve continually nursed injuries on/off the bench. I wish Gordon Hayward had a chance to come back, it’s unlikely he will this season, but Ball’s return led to an exciting result last night as the Hornets dismantled the Pistons at the Spectrum Center. The Heat travel to Charlotte today after an easy win at Cleveland so neither of these teams have had an extra day to rest. As it stands now, the Hornets would earn the final spot in the postseason if it started today, while the Heat are just a notch above them at 7th in the Eastern Conference. If these two teams have anything in common it’s their resiliency. They’re well-coached, savvy, and they always put in max-effort. Miami has the edge in defensive efficiency while the Hornets have a slight edge in offensive efficiency and points per game. Charlotte is at home and they’ve been injected with that facilitating, young LaMelo energy, so I simply can’t take the Heat to cover in this spot. I’m on a fired-up Charlotte unit.
Celtics +1 (-110), 1 unit: Both of these teams are surging but I like the Celtics, who seem to be finally finding a rhythm on offense (Tatum’s 60 point game didn’t hurt), to score the win at home here. The Blazers are in the middle of a brutal road trip and they travel to Atlanta tomorrow night. The Celtics will get a solid and rare 3 days of rest after today’s game. Two volatile teams but, advantage Boston.
Knicks/Rockets under 217.5 (-110), 1.5 units: No one except the Suns, who we think may the best team in the NBA right now, has been able to stop the Knicks lately. And very few teams have been able to overcome New York’s stifling defense. The Knicks are 1st in the NBA in points allowed per game (104.7) and they’ve been top 5 in defensive efficiency all year. In a game like this, where the books expect some margin with NY favored by over 10 points, I don’t see how the score can possibly get very high. While Julius Randle and RJ Barrett and other Knicks should have no trouble scoring, they should also have no angst or drive to push the tempo in this contest. New York should be able to control this game from start to finish (knocks on wood) against a Rockets team that couldn’t muster more than 87 points in their last matchup against Golden State. Even against bad defenses the Rocket don’t take advantage. Houston ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and they’re 24th in ppg– with so little to play for and with how slow the Knicks play (they’re second only to Miami as the slowest team in the association), I don’t see this total going over 210.
Suns first half -9.5 (-110), 1.5 units: In case you haven’t noticed, the Suns are a really good ATS team. In fact, they’ve led the NBA for most of the regular season in various ATS categories. Facing an inept OKC team that’s clearly throwing in the towel on the season, I’ll take the Suns in the first half to get way ahead. Phoenix doesn’t want to lose their position (now sitting at 1st) in the Western Conference and while they may put on the breaks toward the end of the game, it should be pedal-to-the-medal in the first 24 minutes.
