Well a few bad beats kept us from another winning day Sunday (gotta love a last second 3 pointer by the team getting routed to kill your under bet, classic), but we’re still soaring into May after another winning week. Onto today’s bets:
Pacers/Wizards under 246 (-115), 2 units: The totals have officially gotten too high. The Wizards are damn-near averaging 120 points over the last 2 weeks and the Pacers just scored 152 points, but I care not. This is playoff time. There’s only 2 weeks left in the regular season and both of these teams are on the path for extra playing time. Because of the new “play-in” rule, which I despise by the way, the 9th and 10th seeds will be eligible to make the playoffs in a little tournament before the actual playoffs begin. Of course that means more teams can make the postseason, but the Wizards and Pacers are still in a vulnerable spot. Washington is currently the 10th seed and Indiana is 9th. Just like we saw in yesterday’s showdown between the Bucks and Nets, this game will slow down at some point and defenses will have an edge. If you like an over in this game, I would go for the 1st quarter or 1st half. Avoid the full game– it’s just too many points when the games are this contentious.
Warriors/Pelicans 1st Quarter over 60 (-110), 2 units: Same story as yesterday’s write up on the Nets and the Bucks, only this time it’s between two lower-tier teams duking it out for playoff positioning. New Orleans plays at an increasingly fast tempo and Golden State is one of the quickest teams in the NBA. They have been for quite some time. Even better, the Pelicans play notoriously bad defense, especially in the back court, and the Warriors really struggle guarding the front court. That’s a great recipe for both Zion and Curry. While Steph is swishing bombs from the outside, Zion should be able to impose his will in the paint. I’ll avoid player props– those numbers have gotten too high– and I’ll fade the full game over for the same reasons I talked about in the above write-up. The Pelicans really need this game since they sit at 11th in the Western Conference standings. I lean their side (-140) but I’d rather go with an energetic 1st quarter to fly over. If the Pelicans can’t muster some defense and Curry gets hot, this won’t be close.
Grizzlies -3.5 (-115), 1.7 units: I really want to bet on New York here but it feels like a trap. The Grizzlies sit on the edge of the play-in games at 8th in the Western Conference, while the NBA’s ATS-leading Knicks sit comfortably at 4th in the East. If this was a different setup or if this game mattered as much to New York, I would ride with the Knicks here. I think they’re the better team. The Grizzlies aren’t too far off, though. They have dynamic scoring ability from all over their roster and they play great defense too, rated 8th overall in defensive efficiency according to Hollinger metrics. Memphis is coming off a bad loss to Orlando 2 nights ago, certainly not something they can afford right now, while the Knicks just easily whooped the Rockets last night. New York is right in the middle of a long, brutal road trip that gets worse as the week goes on. They’ll have to travel to Denver, LAC, and Phoenix this week, three of the best teams in the West. I hope that doesn’t mean more losses and criticism for the Knicks, who genuinely deserve all the praise they’ve received. Memphis has an easy week ahead; they’ll face Minnesota, Detroit and Toronto. They have a revenge angle here as well, since the Knicks eked out a win against them (133-129) back in early April. I like the under in this game (221) but this is a more ideal spot to take the Grizzlies. I found myself writing “Knicks win (+145)” initially but that was all about my heart, not good handicapping. You have to execute good bets even if it hurts. Grizz cover.
Lakers +5 (-110), 1 unit: I’d be very cautious betting on Denver here. I realize Lebron is out tonight but that may be a good thing for LAL. King James is still a little rusty and he’s sounding awfully negative lately, saying things like, “I’ll probably never be 100%” and “whoever thought of that (play-in) idea should get fired.” Lebron isn’t in a good place but he’s led his team far enough to still sit at 7th overall in the Western Conference, even without playing 2 months and even without Anthony Davis for a huge part of the year. The Nuggets on the other hand, well, they’re pretty damn good. I’ve been saying that for a long time and they’re proving it– in tough spot after tough spot, they just keep winning. Denver has now won 9 of their last 10 and 5 games in a row entering Monday night. Big matchups await as Denver has New York, Utah, and Brooklyn ahead this week. Jokic and the Nuggets should care about this game, but do they? Lebron will be coaching up his boys, the Lakers are at home and they’ll get a solid 3 days rest after tonight. Don’t be so quick to jump all over the Nuggets in this spot. Lakers have the advantage- 1 unit for me.
