It’s another small slate of NBA action and I have nothing to say here except 1) my Pacers/Wizards under bet- LOL, and 2) Russel Westbrook are you kidding me? Ridiculous stat line, though it is the modern (soft) NBA. Let’s get to Tuesday’s bets!
Lean, Cavaliers + 13 (-110): Of course I want to take the Suns here to stomp out the inferior Cavs but lately they don’t seem to care as much about smashing teams. Tied for first place in the West, even Chris Paul and company might finally be feeling the exhaustion of months and months of NBA action. After 3 impressive wins against some of the best teams in the NBA, Phoenix nearly got caught against OKC 2 nights ago, winning only by a 3 point margin (they were favored by 16). I should have seen that angle Sunday night and I’m sure I’ll wish this was an actual bet today, but the Suns are obviously the vastly superior team here. They’re on the road against a feisty Atlanta team tomorrow night, too. Collin Sexton is a bucket and at home, the Cavs could easily prove more challenging than expected. No official bet, but I’d lean “The Land.”
Nets/Bucks- Multiple Bets:
- Giannis over 31.5 points (-130), 2 units: In case you didn’t notice Sunday, Giannis is a PROBLEM for Brooklyn’s porous front court. DeAndre Jordan isn’t what he used to be and Blake Griffin looks 5’8″ standing next to the Greek Freak. Durant plays “okay” defense but not good enough or energetic enough to stop Giannis. The Bucks front man easily scored 49 points and pushed the pace without refrain 2 nights ago. Since that recipe worked, expect the Bucks to stick with their game-plan and feed the reigning MVP as much as possible. The ceiling is ridiculously high here, so 31.5 feels quite low.
- Nets/Bucks first Q over 61 (-115), 1.5 units: I guess I could get cute and try to project other angles here for your entertainment, but the reality is that this game will probably look a lot like the first. This is another showcase matchup where Durant and Kyrie want to out-shine Giannis and company. Look for a ton of points in the first quarter, and be cautious about this game slowing down in proceeding periods.
- Nets win (+105), 1 unit: If we know anything about the Nets and their assortment of random talent, it’s that they love to spit on media narratives. I don’t think this is a championship team– you still have to play defense to win titles– but the Nets are great at answering the call when they’re being doubted. Expect Kyrie to play a bigger role and Durant to shoot even sharper than the first game. The Nets are literally a circus but when they’re motivated, watch out. They should be supremely motivated tonight.
Pelicans win (-120), 1.5 units: When Steph Curry and the Warriors shoot like they did last night– good luck! The Pelicans never had a chance Monday. I looked at the scoreboard early in the first quarter and it was 9-2. Then it was something like 16-5. And then it was 33-19. And then it was 46-29. You get it. Golden State kept margin and never let their foot off the gas, which is something they’ll have to do again here today if they want to hold back Zion and company. The Pelicans are better than what they showed yesterday. Although still not a good ATS team (or TEAM, for that matter), the Pelicans are at home after an embarrassing loss and again, they REALLY need to win to stay in playoff contention. Between Zion and Ball and Ingram and Bledsoe, they just have too much talent to keep losing in this fashion. It speaks to how bad their coaching is, more on that in my new podcast around the corner, but the Warriors have a very shallow front court and the Pelicans need to slow down the game and expose that. Predictably, New Orleans can’t cover perimeter shooters and Curry proved that real quick, scoring 17 points in the first quarter and 41 overall. The Warriors also shot a ridiculous 53.4% from the field and 38.6% from beyond the arc. New Orleans shot a wretched 20% from 3 point land– yikes. Expect some regression to the mean and a desperate Pelicans team to snag a win. Golden State needs a victory but the home team needs it much, much more. The books know that and that’s why they’re favored. I’m trigger shy too, but it’s the right side.
