It’s day 1 of the NBA Play-In Tournament games and even though I don’t love the concept, it gives us more excitement, more to watch, and best of all more ways to win money! Look for my NBA Playoff Preview podcast coming out later today, where I’ll breakdown every team in the postseason and their chances of making the NBA Finals. Here are my best bets for Tuesday’s action:
Hornets +3 (-110), 1.5 units: The Hornets are not a great team but they do a lot of things well. They’re mid-tier in most categories but I think they’re plenty productive enough to keep this game close. If there’s one area where the Hornets really thrive, it’s in assists. They’re 8th overall in assist ratio, which measures how many possessions/scores end in an assist, which is a good indicator of how great they are at executing team basketball. Since no one player is electric enough to hold up their roster (Rozier has been great in moments), they rely on a slow-paced, methodical passing attack to break down their opponent’s defense. Lately the Pacers’ defense has been anything but stifling so I don’t see Charlotte having any issues getting points tonight. This is a big spot for LaMelo Ball in his first playoff game and it’ll be interesting to see how he handles himself. He’s certainly been a nice sparkplug for his team since he’s returned.
In most ways, the Pacers are clearly the better team in this contest. They’re one of the quickest teams in the NBA at 5th in pace, they’re 14th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency. That last stat may be a bit skewed, however. While they are 6th in points per game, they’re 25th in points allowed. That figure has only inflated towards the end of the season and their defense could be a significant problem tonight. They’ve also been plagued by a litany of injuries. Myles Turner and TJ Warren are out, Lamb could be out again tonight, and Sabonis and Brogdon are still banged up.
The Hornets aren’t a deep roster but they’re plenty healthier than Indiana. Their showing on Sunday was a disappointment overall but they found a way to limit the Wizards’ output for most of that matchup. If they can limit Indiana at all, and I think they can, I don’t think the Pacers can or will overrun the visiting Hornets. This should be a hard-fought, close game between two similarly built teams and I’ll gladly take the dog when that’s the case.
Wizards win (+115), 1.5 units and Wizards/Celtics over 232.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets, although it could make a fine parlay too. This is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions and I think both of those tidal waves keep growing tonight. Although few “experts” are giving the Wizards a chance to do anything in the postseason, the fact is they were one of the best teams in the association to end the season. According to SB Nation, “over the past 24 games, the Wizards have a net offensive rating minus defensive rating of +5.3 points per 100 possessions.” That’s a better rating than 24 NBA teams. Only the Jazz, Clippers, Suns, Bucks, and 76ers were better. The Nuggets, for example, fell below the Wizards’ rating at +5.0 points per 100 possessions. The Wizards also finished the season 17-7 in those last 24 games. Mostly led by Russel Westbrook willing his team to wins through triple-double after triple double, the Wizards are really hard to contain when they’re in a flow-state (and Russ is a savant at getting them there). It was clear Bradley Beal wasn’t 100% in their last game against the Hornets, but it may take an act of God to keep him out today. Can the Celtics stop the electric and hyper-paced offense of Washington tonight? We think not.
It’s not all bad news out of Boston. The Celtics steadily improved on defense down the stretch. Throughout the year they were rated as one of the worst defenses in the association, but they finished 15th in defensive efficiency and 11th in points allowed. Their offense and skill-players have been inconsistent, but they’ve done enough to push their team to earn the 7th seed in the East. Considering how volatile their season has been, that’s not a bad result. Still, the Celtics were reeling in May. Losers of 5 of their last 6 games to teams like the Heat (twice), the Knicks, Bulls, and Cavs, Tatum and company couldn’t find their mojo without Jaylen Brown in the lineup. Brown had arguably his best year yet as a Celtic, averaging 24.7 ppg and 6 rebounds per game. The loss of Brown means more pressure on Tatum and his supporting cast. Kemba Walker has had nice moments this year but he’s dealt with injuries on and off and he’s been too inconsistent. Marcus Smart is a veteran and as tough as it gets, but he’s not an accountable every-possession shooter like Brown or Tatum.
The Celtics have playoff experience, a good coach and plenty of playmakers to win this game; I just don’t think they will. The pace and output of Washington’s offense over the last month has been astounding. After nearly blowing their last game against the Hornets for the 8th seed, the Wizards were able to come back from a double-digit-deficit and win by two possessions, nearly covering their line (-6). Great teams are able to turn on the jets when needed and that’s exactly what the Wizards did 2 days ago. Are the Wizards a great team? That might be going too far, but they have significantly more momentum than the Celtics and I don’t think Boston will be able to keep up with them. Since I think Washington will command the pace of the game I also like the over, though I’ll only put one unit on it since this is a playoff-entry game and nerves are high, which usually favors defense.
