A nice 2-1 Saturday on the Bucks/Nets gives us a 30-16 record the last 2 weeks in NBA betting. Today we have a game 1 and a game 7 to attend to so let’s not waste any time. Here are my best bets and predictions for the Sunday slate!
76ers win (-165), 1.6 units: As we’ve seen in their previous series, the Atlanta Hawks are no team to ignore. Allowing only 1 win for the popular Knicks, the Hawks beat New York in 5 games, winning 2 of those contests at Madison Square Garden. Atlanta is a an all-around solid unit that rarely gets overwhelmed or out-performed. And when their opponent makes a ton of mistakes, the Hawks are usually there to appropriately hawk opportunities and steal a win. A top 10 team throughout the season in offensive efficiency, true shooting percentage and turnover ratio, the Hawks are a well-coached program and won’t be an easy round in the second round. They have leadership, a true star in Trae Young, and they play really well as a team. I can’t wait to see what they can do in this series.
All that being said, the 76ers are a huge uptick in class. While the Knicks were everyone’s darling Cinderella story and fan favorite because of their blue-collar mentality and team spirit, the 76ers are a legitimate championship contender. The Sixers boast, for our money, the most consistently stout defense in the East. Finishing 2nd in defensive efficiency and 6th in points allowed, Philly is big, long, and gifted on the defensive end. They’re significantly bigger and more athletic than what Atlanta experienced against New York. Simmons is a true shut down defender and the Sixers seem to play with an enhanced energy when they’re guarding the rim. And it’s not like they’re untalented on offense. With or without Embiid, Philadelphia is capable of out-classing 95% of the association in offensive talent. Personally I think Embiid will play, whispers seem to be favoring that news, but I think the 76ers still win without him. If he doesn’t play, look for player props on Clint Capela’s rebounds. The front court will be more shallow without the 76ers star and Capela is an absolute monster under the rim. He could easily snag 20.
The Hawks will provide a real challenge to Philadelphia in this series. They’ll test the #1 seed’s team chemistry and consistency. If I had to pick a side in this contest I would lean Atlanta +4 for that reason. But I don’t. With Embiid likely playing and the 76ers at home and focused on their quest to finally get to the NBA Finals, this is their game to decide and I think they’ll step up. I’ll swallow the juice and take a moneyline play in game 1.
Mavericks +6.5 (-110), 2 units: I’m going to keep this write up shorter than the first since we’re already heard and seen it all in this series. It’s game 7, both teams have exclusively won their 3 games on the road, and superstars Luka Doncic and Kawhi Leonard are putting on a show. I’ve already put a bet on the under when it was at 216, which felt ridiculously high, and that proved to be true since we now see it down to as low as 209.5 at some books. What I will play on is the Mavericks getting points.
As we’ve noted, Dallas has played better and won in this series on the road. Game 7 will be at the Staples Center. In no way shape or form should the Mavericks be getting over 6 points here. That’s over 2 possessions. Luka has proved un-guardable in this matchup so why would I project his downfall today? In case you’re unaware, Luka Doncic was playing professional basketball at age 14. AGE 14! For as sophisticated as LAC is on the defensive end, Luka is all the more advanced on offense. He’ll find ways to get open and he’s proven to play his best under pressure. Kristap is due for some positive regression and the Mavericks have playmakers all over the court in Hardaway Jr., Finney-Smith, Kleber and others. The fact that this is a seven game series speaks to how contentious it’s been. I can’t imagine this one not coming down to the wire. Regardless of the outcome (and to be clear, it’s way more likely that’s it’s a close contest), the value is on Dallas +6.5, period.
