The NBA Playoffs are finally here! Here are my best bets and predictions for the first slate of the 2020-2021 postseason:
Heat/Bucks under 227 (-110), 1.5 units (and lean Heat +5): Jimmy Butler was recently quoted saying, “I’m stupidly locked in,” and you know what? I believe him. For 2 years running Jimmy has brought a moxie and toughness to Miami and it’s become emblematic of what they represent to the league. Scrappy and hustling defense. Efficient and in-your-face offense. Resiliency. The Heat waltz into the playoffs with a notch under their belt that a lot of other Eastern Conference teams can’t claim: they have NBA Finals experience. So when Jimmy exudes and expresses confidence about his team heading into this weekend, I’m inclined to take him seriously. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks, on the other hand, aren’t in their usual top 2 spot heading into the postseason. The Greek Freak has struggled through some injuries and his team has struggled to play consistent basketball, particularly on defense. The Bucks are fast-paced and hyper-reliant on Giannis for success. While I think that may ultimately derail them from ever winning a championship, the Heat that could derail their immediate chances if they’re not careful. Whatever team controls the game controls the pace and usually has more affect on the total. I’m betting on Miami’s ability to affect this game enough that we see an under. The Heat play at an extremely slow tempo (29th, second slowest only to the Knicks), are top 5 in points allowed and top 7 in defensive efficiency. The only way to stop the Bucks, the NBA’s 1st placed team in points per game, is to slow down Giannis. That’s especially true at Fiserv Forum. A ton of money was made on betting the Heat as underdogs last year in the postseason. While I’ll lean their side today, I’ll bet on their defense and pace affecting this game enough that we get a total well below 227.
Clippers -5 (-115), 1.5 units: If you listened to my Western Conference Playoff Preview podcast that I put out this week, you’d know that I don’t feel great about the Dallas Mavericks’ chances to make the Finals. I mean no disrespect by that; I just can’t see it. There’s a ton of elite teams in the West and the Clippers might be at the top of that heap. Los Angeles’ “other team” is one of the most complete units in the NBA. They’re #1 in the league in 3 point shooting percentage, they’re top 5 in effective field goal and true shooting percentage, and top 8 in both defensive and offensive efficiency, the latter of which they’re #2 overall. But forget all the stats– one look at their roster and it’s plain to see how elite they are. The question is: will they play in-sync with so little time all together and all healthy throughout the year? It bodes well for the Mavericks that Kristap Porzingis is back in the lineup, but how healthy is he? Dallas depends on Kristap as Luka’s number 2 guy but knee pain and soreness has kept him out of the lineup for long stretches of the season. While the Dallas roster isn’t shallow by any means, Kristap and others will have to step up immensely if they want to contend with LAC. In three meetings this year, the Mavericks got the best of the Clippers twice. One of those wins was against a Clippers squad missing Kawhi Leonard, but the other victory was a vintage Luka performance– the Slovenian scored 42 points and had 9 assists to go with it. Luka will need to do that over and over again if the Mavericks have a chance today and in this series. I’m betting on the more complete team to take game 1 by two possessions– the regular season is over.
Nets -8 (-110), 1 unit: This line has gotten a little too big for us to overly invest in but this is the only way I can look. Boston showed some really solid defense in their win against the Wizards to earn the 7th seed but this is a different beast. For the first time in a long time Durant, Harden and Kyrie are all healthy and ready to rock. The last thing Brooklyn wants to do is flounder in game 1 and give Boston confidence. I expect a fast-paced, lethal offensive attack from the Nets to start off this series at home. As good as the Celtics can play in moments, and as much as Brooklyn annoys the piss out of me, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker (although Tatum has played brilliantly recently) have limits to their production and I don’t see them being able to keep up. If you like the Celtics’ side and think they can be really competitive here, consider the under 229.5, too.
Nuggets -1 (-110), 2 units and Blazers/Nuggets under 227.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. The Blazers appear to be the more public team here and that only benefits our wager. I love the Blazers and Damian Lillard is easily one of my favorite players, but this line and the books appear to be discrediting what Denver has done this year. It’s especially downplaying how well they’ve played without Jamal Murray. Since Murray went down with a torn ACL, the Nuggets have won 72% of their games (13 of 18) and kept their spot atop the Western Conference. Sitting comfortably in the 3rd seed to open the playoffs. Nikola Jokic leads a deep roster full of skill-players that know exactly how to best help their teams’ chance to win. Aaron Gordon is perfect for his role as a gritty defender, rebounder, and high percentage shooter. Michael Porter Jr. has taken Murray’s place as a talented and athletic guard capable of scoring a ton of points on any given day. Solid offensive and defensive support from players like Millsap and Campazzo and others off the bench round up a rotation led by Jokic, who commands and facilitates his players better than any big man in the NBA. And all they do is win. Maybe it’s Jokic’s mentality, but the Nuggets are a very cerebral and consistent team. Kind of like the Colts in the NFL (especially when they have good quarterback play), the Nuggets are just too deep at every position to get outplayed most nights. The Blazers aren’t shallow either, but they’re not as consistent as Denver. Portland ended their 2021 season on a high, winning 10 of their last 12 games, including a meaningless win against the Nuggets in their final contest. Denver bested them twice before that in two games where Jokic dominated, scoring 41 in the first matchup and 25 in the second, which connects to the real issue of the Blazers– defense. Jokic and company have had their way with a Portland unit ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in points allowed. The Denver offense is top 8 in both ppg and offensive efficiency. The Portland offense can produce and they have a ton of talented scorers; it’s just really hard to be as efficient as they need to be to overcome their struggles on the other end of the floor. I trust what I’ve seen from Jokic and Denver this year at they’re hosting game 1 in their home arena– I’m on the Nuggets to win.
As far as the small under bet goes, the Blazers and Nuggets both play at surprisingly low tempos (19th and 26th, respectively). The nerves of game 1 and the expected positive regression that comes with playoff defense, combined with their slow tempos, has the total a little too high for me. I’ll take the under for a humble 1 unit.
