How about them Blazers, eh? If they keep that up I may become a believer. Clamped down on Jokic in the second half, electric from the perimeter. Good stuff. And who doesn’t love a Damian Lillard takeover? What an enigma that dude is. We were 2-3 yesterday, not ideal, but we chug along since that’s all you can do in this industry. Onto the picks!
Wizards/Sixers under 228.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Lean, Sixers -8 (-110): We saw some trends in yesterday’s games. It’s the usual trend we see when the playoffs begin– shots are a little harder to make and defenses really start to step up. It’s like suddenly teams like the Blazers and Bucks are just as talented on that end of the court as they are offense. Where was that during the season? Well, motivation was the issue and it appears that won’t be a thing in the postseason (thank God). Not all the unders hit yesterday but we saw really low scoring quarters and better overall effort on the defensive end of the floor. The Sixers deserve to be an 8 point favorite at home as the #1 seed and I lean to their side in this contest. As well as Beal and Westbrook have played and as electric as their offense can be, the 76ers are methodical and precise and should throw off the Wizards with their shut-down defense throughout this contest. Still, the 8th seeded Wizards are capable of staying in ball games and shocking opponents. The way they ended their season has me staying away from betting on the Sixers here. We’ve also seen great effort on defense from Washington players like Hachimura and Ish Smith and I expect them and other skill players to make life difficult for the Philadelphia shooters today. The Sixers know the Wizards are going to try and out-run and overwhelm them with their 1st place tempo, while the Wizards know that the Sixers are going to feed Embiid and try to beat them in the front court. Simmons and Harris and even Howard off the bench are key cogs in that machine, too. Two familiar foes in a playoff battle? Give me the under.
Suns win first half (-130), 2 units: This is a tough game to handicap but the Suns deserve to be favorites and I’m glad they are. Still, I have to avoid the full game line (Suns are -2.5 as I type this). Anything favoring the Suns in between that one and two possession area is too much for me. For the first half line though, I’ll go with Phoenix. We saw the Lakers struggle to put solid 1st/2nd quarters together against the Warriors in the play in game and they might struggle at first again today. For as great a leader as Lebron is and for as much talent as they have surrounding Lebron and Davis, this is a team that hasn’t played together very much this year. Chris Paul and the Suns are built on team chemistry. Paul facilitates better than any player in the NBA and it’s the reason why Phoenix leads the league in assist ratio. Pass-pass-pass-shoot: that’s the way most Phoenix possessions end up (unlike most NBA teams and their penchant for isolation basketball). I expect a Chris Paul led team, with Devin Booker all their skill players full of excitement at home, to come out fluid and showing a ton of chemistry. The Lakers could and just might pull ahead in the second half, but Phoenix in the first feels like a great bet.
Hawks/Knicks under 213 (-110), 1 unit and Capela under 15.5 rebounds (-120), 1.5 units: The only thing that would make this game go over is if the Hawks have a huge offensive quarter like Portland did last night. I don’t see that against the Knicks defense. New York runs at the slowest pace in the association and should be able to put the clamps down on an offense that’s already pretty average in Atlanta. Atlanta is also pretty darn good on defense, ranked 12th in points allowed, and the Knicks have had their struggles on offense. The Hawks do a lot of things well but nothing that jumps off the page or that’s hard to contain. Trae Young can score outside shots all day but the Knicks’ defenders will have a plan to limit his opportunities. The same can be said for Clint Capela. The 27 year old Swiss has been an absolute legend under the rim all year, averaging over 14 rebounds a game. That’s an insane amount of rebounds to average in the NBA. One adjustment I have to make in the postseason when I’m handicapping games is instead of always following trends and asserting my knowledge into my wagers, I need to fade them sometimes, too. Why? Because by this point, NBA coaches and players have figured out the same things we have. The Knicks know Clint Capela is a badass and they’ll do everything they can to limit the Hawks’ second-chance opportunities. He’ll get his, but 16+ rebounds doesn’t seem likely against Julius Randle and the Knicks’ solid front court. It’s that and the under for me in what should be a gritty bar fight type of game.
Lean Jazz -9 (-105) and Lean under 217 (-110): This is a huge line for a playoff game so I won’t play it, though it does feels very deserving. The most consistent team in the NBA with the most wins overall faces one of the most volatile in the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis definitely earned their bid into the big dance– that win against Golden State was impressive– but they’re still far from a championship contender and I think they’ll feel that tonight. Utah is top 5 in so many categories it’s stupid. They should be able to command and maintain control in this game, challenging the Grizzlies early and often on defense and managing an effective offensive game-plan throughout. I also lean under because if Memphis proved anything in the play in tournament, it’s that their defense has another level to it. We didn’t see it much during the season but it’s there. We all know the Jazz can play really exceptional defense and in the playoffs, I can’t see this number rising over 220. Since it’s lined nearly exactly where I would have it, the under is only a lean for me.
