A sterling 2-0 Monday makes us 5-1 the last 2 days, which means we’re back to our winning ways! On a separate note, if you want the video/podcast version of my picks tonight, check out my Twitter for the 40 minutes I did with Kyle Hunter today. Kyle is one of the best minds in sports betting and someone I’ve looked up to for many years, so it was a real honor to be on his show. Onto today’s picks!
Tatum over 30.5 points (-120), 2 units and Lean Celtics/Nets over 227 (-115): I really want to bet the over tonight, which is a ballsy move with how slow a lot of these NBA games are moving, but I just can’t do it. The one bet I do like is Tatum’s point prop.
One thing that I think we can expect in this game is at least some signs of improvement from Boston’s offense. The Celtics only managed to score 20 points in the 3rd and 4th quarters against a Nets’ defense that we all know isn’t very good. Maybe Brooklyn’s capable of more and that’s what we saw in game one, but just their potential doesn’t make them a great defensive team. I don’t trust they can sustain it until I see more. Even more glaring was how badly Jayson Tatum played Saturday. Tatum was on the court for 41 of the game’s 48 minutes and was only able to muster 20 points. He was 6/20 from the field and 1/4 from beyond the arc. Kemba Walker is a decent #2 but he’s too often unaccountable, leaving Tatum with a huge weight on his shoulders in big game-situations. Walker didn’t fare well on Saturday either, shooting only was 5/16 from the field. I think he’ll perform better tonight, too. Still, Boston cannot win without a huge performance from Tatum. Going down 0-2 will leave the Celtics in a terrible position, one they likely can’t dig out of, and I think Tatum will do everything humanly possible to prevent that from happening. I’ll put a confident 2 units on him to ball out.
It’s also another reason why I lean to the over. While the Nets started off slow in the first two quarters of game one, they showed real rhythm and chemistry in the second half. I expect that to carry over into tonight’s game. The pace of game one was well below the average for each of these squads at 93 possessions. I expect regression to the mean in tempo too, since both of these teams average well over 100 possessions per game. If Tatum performs well, the tempo increases and Brooklyn keeps their rhythm like we expect, 227 could look like a silly-low number when this game concludes.
Lakers win (-125), 2 units: Keep your thumbs ready on Twitter, I think this will be a really great game to watch. There’s a few of competing trends to consider tonight:
- The Suns cover the spread at an NBA best 64.9% at home.
- The Lakers have not been a good favorite this year, covering at a rate of only 47.1%.
- Historically when a team loses game one, their chances of winning the series are just over 20%. When Lebron-led teams lose game one, they win the series over 60% of the time. That’s quite a difference.
- At most books, the Lakers are still slightly favored to win this series.
This feels like a very “Brady-like situation” before his team enters the playoffs. Like Brady, we always wonder: is it time to fade Lebron? Is this the year we see some regression?
Usually the answer, to both Brady or Lebron, is still NO. Interestingly, I don’t think game two is as really about Lebron James. It’s about Anthony Davis. Lebron will show up and facilitate and lead his team and probably flop 5 times for 6 made free throws and the Lakers will be better for it. Anthony Davis, however, well he looked god-awful in game one. Making DeAndre Ayton look like the real prodigy, Davis was 5-16 from the field for only 13 points, 0-2 from 3 point land, and had a mind-blowingly bad point differential of -18 (meaning 31 points were scored against him, whereas he only scored 13). It doesn’t get much worse than that.
A motivated Anthony Davis is different human. You would think that game one of the Western Conference Playoffs would be enough to ignite the young superstar, but it wasn’t. That should change tonight. Check out player-props on Davis to make some money off of that. On a normal day with equal motivation, Anthony Davis should be the lone Sherriff of the front court. He’s too long and too talented a shooter to let the Suns throw off his game like we saw on Sunday.
In addition to the many aspects where Phoenix did a better job in the first contest, the Lakers were out-rebounded 47-33, only shot 27% from beyond the arc, and shot 60.7% from the free throw line. An amped up Anthony Davis will alter those statistics but the rest of the Lakers have to do better, too. Expect Lebron James and Frank Vogel to make the adjustments they need for tonight.
The Suns are a great basketball team but besides DeAndre Ayton, they’re small. They’re also very young. Chris Paul is a phenomenal leader and Devin Booker has looked great, but I still think a pissed off Lakers team will be too much for them to overcome tonight. I expect this series to be tied when they head to the Staples Center.
Mavericks/Clippers over 216 (-110), 1 unit: Again it’s awfully scary to take an over bet but I feel good enough to put a humble unit on it (as I big gulp). At 87.5 possessions, the Mavericks and Clippers’ game one was by far the slowest paced game in the first week of the playoffs. Methodical and precise, Dallas was able to out-shoot and out-perform their foe, holding a lead for what felt like the entire game. Luka had a big night with 31 points while Porzingis, Finney-Smith and Hardaway Jr. added another 52 points to help support their star. Dallas shot 50% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc.
The Clippers, who have always been too shot-dependent, didn’t fare so well. LAC shot 44% from the field and only 27.5% from distance. The latter is shocking. The Clippers were the best 3-point shooting team in the association entering the playoffs, hitting at over 41%. Ergo, I reckon it’s reasonable to assume some positive regression tonight.
Their stars also went cold. Kawhi and George ended up scoring 26 and 23 respectively, not bad, but they were a combined 17-40 from the field and 3/14 from beyond the arc. That has to change if they want to overcome Luka and the Mavericks. Luka will find a way to get his points–we’ve seen it over and over again in big-game situations– so the Clippers not only have to continue clamping down on defense but they need to overwhelm Dallas with their offensive skill players. If they don’t, LAC could be in an uncomfortable situation heading to Dallas down 0-2. I can hear Steve Ballmer shrieking now.
The Mavericks are a solid team but, on paper, they shouldn’t be able to contend with the Clippers. LAC has two Luka-stars in Kawhi and George and a deep roster with tons of playoff experience– Rondo, Ibaka, Beverly, Morris Sr. Expect them to put out more efficient performances tonight. While I think the Clippers will win (when you’re favored by 7 you probably should), I can’t bet their side with how well Dallas performed in game one. I’m just not sure how adept LAC is at stopping the Dallas offense. What I can assume is that the Clippers are bothered by their offensive showing last time out and will look to correct that with simple scheming and better shot selection tonight. Even after the molasses-like-pace of these two teams in game one, I like the stars to shine bright tonight and push this total over the 216. I’ll starting holding my breath now.
