We were 4 points away from the Bogdanovic bet hitting and 2 points away from the Dallas team total bet hitting, but a 2-2 Friday isn’t bad considering our showing this week. We’re 13-6 heading into Saturday, let’s get it!
Giannis under 47.5 Points/Assists/Rebounds (-114), 1.14 units: I’ll avoid taking a side here and instead look at Giannis’ chances at a triple double. I respect the hell of out the Miami Heat and I’m sure they have plenty of fight left, but so far it hasn’t looked like they can compete with this fired up Bucks team. Giannis is doing his part, and more importantly his supporting cast is doing theirs. Milwaukee is upping the pace on offense and clamping down on defense, showing how complete a team they can be when everyone’s healthy and motivated.
The game four narrative should go one of two ways: 1) The Bucks continue to romp the Heat and gain margin quickly just like they have in the previous 2 games. Milwaukee crushed the Heat by 29 points in game three and 34 points in game two. I think this is still the likeliest outcome. Or 2) The Heat are feisty like they were in game one and this is a slow moving, hard fought defensive battle. Remember, even in OT, game one only made it to 216 total points. That’s what happens in games where Miami is efficient. In either narrative, I think that favors an under bet on Giannis’ production.
There are no new schemes or approaches that can stop the Bucks other than the obvious– limit Giannis and hope that his supporting cast can’t hold up the team. So far the Heat haven’t done too well at stopping the Greek-freak or stopping his teammates, but Giannis hasn’t had one of those out-of-control explosive games just yet. The Heat are capable of keeping him at bay at least for one half. If the Bucks go off, I could see Giannis sitting in the 4th quarter while Milwaukee rides a big lead into a 4-0 series win. Either way, I like Giannis’ P/A/R total under.
Nuggets +4.5 (-110), 1 unit and Nuggets/Blazers under 227.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Nuggets just keep getting disrespected and I have to take these lines. My first thought after nailing the outcome of game three was that I would take the Blazers today, but taking them as a -4.5 favorite? No thanks. The line makes sense– the books projected Portland as the series favorite and they’re at home and down 2-1 in this series– it’s desperation time for Damian Lillard and his team.
Still, as I’ve said many times before and I’ll say it again, I’m on Denver’s side because I think they’re the better team. It’s that simple. They’ve also showed how poised and effective they can be in bad spots all season. It’s why they kept the #3 seed. This is a prime spot for the Blazers at home in what feels like a must-win since the series goes back to Denver for game five. Because of that, this is just a humble 1 unit play.
I like the under a little more. The Nuggets and Blazers scored a ridiculous 53 points in the final 6 minutes of Thursday’s game. Usually when a bevvy of points comes out like that at the end of a quarter or contest, it has the opposite effect in the proceeding quarters. In other words, we expect negative regression back to the mean. Both of these units need to do a better job at limiting the sharpshooters and skill players on the opposing offense. And in truth, both of these teams have been ridiculously proficient from the field. Lillard and Jokic in particular have been damn near unstoppable. In a game that should be heated and contentious in a crucial game four, the under feels right to me.
76ers over 115.5 points (-115), 2 units: This is up to 116.5 at some books and was down to 115 yesterday. I snagged 115.5. I get the perspective of the oddsmakers here. Washington is at home and needs to avoid a game three loss. If they don’t win game three the series is virtually over. We’ve seen (not often) the Wizards put together some decent defensive performances when they needed it in the play-in tournament and late in the regular season. Knowing all that, you can’t put the Philly team total near 120– it feels too high. You also can’t put it closer to 110– this is still a bad Wizards defense against one of the best offenses in the league.
I don’t have to tell my sharp readers this but I’ll type it out anyway– winning in sports betting, especially long term, is often less about the teams you’re betting on and more about the number itself. Philadelphia has easily eclipsed a 115.5 total twice in this series and, despite how critical this game is, the Wizards still have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. That’s why 115.5 feels low. We’ve also received no evidence that the Wizards can come close to stopping a fully healthy Sixers team. In two games we’ve seen Philadelphia’s prowess both on offense and on defense, limiting the Wizards’ stars and flexing an assortment of scoring talent. Seth Curry might be limited in today’s game but that doesn’t take too much away from the Sixers scoring ability. Tobias Harris should be good to go.
I want to bet on Philly -6.5 here. Russel Westbrook should be limited after rolling his ankle in game two so another blowout win for the favorite could very well occur. Still, like we saw in the Nets/Celtics game last night, this is a huge game for Washington at home and I could see them playing way over their head and covering this line. Since the only way Washington knows how to win is by looking for fast-break opportunities and pushing the pace, I think the Sixers will take advantage like we saw in game one and have a ton of offensive success. Best bet for me– team total over on Philly.
Check out my Twitter account for my final NBA bet: I’m giving out my premium picks free today for everyone. I’ll post my play on the Jazz vs. Grizzlies after I post this article.
