Well yesterday’s picks didn’t go the way I wanted and to say it has me fired up this Friday morning is a definitive understatement. The Jekyll and Hyde mentality of the Bucks and Nets, especially when they’re away from their home floor, is beyond annoying. Still, Giannis and Durant were a hair away from hitting the prop bets we posted. All we can do is shrug it off and that’s exactly what I’ll do as we approach Friday night. Here are my best bets:
76ers win 1st QTR (-160), 1.6 units and 76ers -3 (-115), 1.5 units and Lean, 76ers/Hawks over 221.5 (-110): The 76ers love to start fast and they’ve won the first quarter by margin in 4 out of 5 games in this series. While I want to take them at -2 in the first, I don’t think that line makes much sense since the full game line is set at -3. Out of respect for Atlanta at home, I’ll just go with Philly winning the first quarter straight up. If you’re unsure about which side to take or you’re leaning the Atlanta side, betting on them in the first quarter or first half at +2 is a good hedge.
I just can’t see Philly allowing the Hawks to have their way in 3 straight games. After Atlanta shocked the 76ers to open the series, Joel Embiid and company answered back and they did so in dominant fashion, winning by 16 point margins in games two and three. On paper, Philadelphia is a considerably better team than their foe. They’ve proven as much all season, even without some of their stars. That being said, Trae Young and the Hawks play with a moxie and aggression that’s hard to quantify. Would I be shocked if they won this game? Absolutely not. But smart money is with Philly if you ask me (and you are, right? Because you’re reading this). Expect the fledgling Sixers to come out hot at the beginning of this game and to play with urgency like we haven’t seen.
I lean the score going over because the Sixers are playing at a blitzing tempo (2nd in pace overall this postseason) and I expect that to only increase tonight. Philly has thrived when they get out to an early lead and they’re able to control the game. You’d think they could do that in every contest against Atlanta but Trae is fearless and his supporting cast of sharpshooters can hang with any team’s offensive production. Game five wasn’t a fluke– the Hawks are built to stay in games and surge and it just happened to be at the wrong time 2 nights ago (i.e. only the most crucial moments in the second half). Astoundingly, only Joel Embiid and Seth Curry scored a field goal in the second half Wednesday. That sort of handicapped basketball cannot happen tonight if Philly wants to keep this series alive.
The amount of motivation the 76ers should have tonight is immeasurable. It’s a win or go home situation after they blew a big lead in game five and after a myriad of Sixers players couldn’t find any sort of rhythm for a full 2 quarters. As a sports bettor we should not only hope for positive regression and the best version of Philly tonight, we should expect it.
Jazz win (-125), 1.5 units and D. Mitchell over 32.5 pts (-120), 1.5 units ONLY IF MITCHELL PLAYS: I just got news that Donovan Mitchell is “questionable” for tonight. I hope that’s just some odd cautionary move but if it’s not, these two bets will not be executed by yours truly.
A big part of me wants to go with the dogs tonight– I mean they’re at home and what a value, right?– but like the Sixers the Jazz are fooling all of us into thinking they’re not as good as advertised. It’s just not true. Sure the Jazz have lost 3 straight and it feels like Tyronn Lue and his team have figured something out. I don’t think they have; I think Utah simply dropped the ball. When Donovan Mitchell has a big night, his supporting cast stumbles. When Mitchell has an off night, his supporting cast does better. It’s not enough.
The Jazz aren’t as deep a team as the Clippers and it showed it game five. Still, the books had the Jazz as 8 point favorites before tipoff. Think about that. We knew better, but Bookie-Joe and his associates thought that without Kawhi, the Jazz are 8 points better than the Clippers at home. Now, fresh off a loss and back on the road, the Jazz are only a 1.5 point favorite? Naa, something’s off here and I don’t agree with it. The books are trying to lure us in and unlike “Joey-public,” we’re not taking the bait.
The Jazz had the best record in the NBA all season. While their bench may be slightly more shallow than the Clippers, Utah has role-players at every position on their roster that can impact a game in a huge way. This isn’t one of those games where they can methodically scheme and stay calm and still anticipate a win. On the contrary, I expect to see a different version of the Jazz tonight. While they’ll be led by Donovan Mitchell’s offense, who we all know steps up in big game situations, we should see even more positive regression from the Jazz on defense. Utah ranks 11th overall among 16 playoff teams in defensive efficiency. That means teams like the Bucks, Hawks, Nets, and even the Mavericks have performed better. While LAC has been highly efficient on offense and they deserve credit, the Jazz aren’t maximizing their skill defenders and clamping down like we’ve seen them do all year. Don’t be surprised if Paul George and his other teammates who thrived in game five have a different experience tonight. Without Kawhi and with all the pressure on Paul George now that they won without their star, I’ll side with the Jazz defense.
Utah won’t go down easy and I trust Mitchell and Gobert and their many veterans to step up in a big way Friday. Besides, the NBA wants a game seven; we all know that.
