What’s up everyone! I’m in a damn good mood and there’s one reason why: The NBA regular season is over and we did it again! We crushed it, going 283-223 (56%) for +73 units. That gives us a career NBA record of 490-375, good for 57%. Not. Too. Shabby. Time for the postseason! Let’s get to our NBA Power Ratings and full playoff preview.
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FarleyBets’ NBA Power Ratings and NBA Playoffs Preview
- Bucks: (rating- 94) Milwaukee is my #1 team heading into the playoffs and the reasons are fairly obvious. Last season the doubters were quickly silenced as the Bucks had answers for every pundits’ question: Can Giannis shine in the postseason? YES. Is Khris Middleton a clutch #2? YES. Do they have a formidable enough defense to stifle the best offenses? YES. Milwaukee has shown a renewed chemistry this season, picking up right where they left off and ascending to the top of the East once again. In my opinion, they have the best opening matchup against Chicago. In fact, we expect a sweep (Bucks win in 4 is +380 on DraftKings). Now that Milwaukee has seasons of chemistry and experience behind them, they’re more dangerous than ever. Giannis may not be the best pure shooter in the NBA, but he’s the most dominant. The Bucks are in a great spot to repeat and I’m not sure if any of the elite defenses of the East can stop Giannis when it’s clutch time– have we seen anyone that could?
- Suns (rating- 93) How in the hell can Phoenix be #2, you may ask? I get it. The Suns own the best record in the association, again, and Devin Booker is having a fantastic season as their best offensive producer. CP3 is healthy, Ayton has showed some signs of progress, and Monty Williams is probably the best coach in the NBA. So why are they just a notch under Milwaukee? One reason: lack of poise. Chris Paul is the Suns’ on-court leader, make no mistake about it, but clutch shooting and big-game moments will land on Devin Booker’s shoulders. Booker is an elite shooter and scoring talent, but he tends to let his emotions get the best of him too often, especially in late-game, pressure situations. He’s also undersized and predictably struggles more in the playoffs as defenses perform at a new level. Until Booker shows maturity and growth in these scenarios, I can’t put Phoenix as #1, though I expect them back in the NBA Finals (at +110 or similar to win the West, there’s very little value at this point).
- Celtics (rating- 91) If the Celtics can continue playing the brand of basketball we’ve seen since the start of this calendar year, Eastern Conference teams should be very, very afraid. This is the clear #1 defense in the NBA, and even without Robert Williams III to start the postseason we can expect to see more of the same from this unit. First year coach Ime Udoka has created a culture of toughness and discipline in Boston and the dividends are plain to see. Tatum has a renewed confidence, Brown is comfortable in a #2 role, Marcus Smart is in prime form, Horford has a tremendous basketball IQ and at times feels like the team MVP because of all the small plays he makes game-to-game, and the entire roster operates with the same blue-collar mentality. The only question is Tatum in big-game situations. This is an offense that’s been brilliant to end the season but they weren’t as consistent holistically. Facing teams like Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Miami and Philadelphia will really test how complete they truly are. The Celtics are between +350 and +400 to win the East, depending on your book. That’s not enough value for me, but betting on Celtics moneylines in future rounds may be very advantageous.
- Heat (rating- 89) Miiiaaammmiii! Maybe the most fun team to watch game to game, the Miami Heat are the #1 team in the East for a reason and it’s actually shocking that more people aren’t talking about their potential. Where’s the weakness for this team? They can score with anyone, they’re one of the best 3-point-shooting units in the association, their defense is consistently exceptional, and Eric Spoelstra is an elite NBA coach. Led by the aggressive nature of Bam Adebayo in the paint, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, and the NBA’s clear 6th man Tyler Herro are probably coming into this postseason with a chip on their collective shoulders. And why shouldn’t they? They’ve been disrespected over and over again and all they’ve done is win. So then why aren’t they #1 or #2 in my power ratings? Well, Jimmy Butler is a wildcard. I love Jimmy, but he lets his emotions diminish his talent a little too often for my liking. And although Herro has been a savage off the bench, the playoffs are different. Miami has relied on Herro in many late-game situations and he’s performed exceptionally. Jury is still out if that can continue. At +500, the Heat are probably the best value play to win the East.
- Mavericks (rating- 87) NO ONE is talking about the Mavericks and I love it! I think Dallas has a really good shot at making the Western Conference Finals (and they’re +1000 to win it; yowza, I’ll take it). The difference in Dallas is Luka’s supporting cast. Luka Doncic is obviously a dominant, exceptional talent. His late-game shot-making and ability to score from anywhere on the court is a spectacle to watch. But the Slovenian can only do so much by himself. Dallas’ traded Porzingis (don’t let the door hit you in the…) to Washington in a transaction that brought over Spencer Dinwiddie, and good golly that was a damn good move. Dinwiddie has made a massive difference for Dallas; he’s a phenomenal 1-2 punch beside Jalen Brunson, and it’s the exact recipe you need in today’s NBA– two wings that can explode into the paint and create offense. Together with Dwight Powell’s rejuvenated defensive effort and other contributors like Bullock and Finney-Smith, the Mavs are not a team anyone wants to face right now. Their ability to put the clamps on opposing offenses, especially in the 2nd half, has been tremendous. Look out for Dallas; they’re one of the most dangerous teams in the Western Conference, and I love them to best Utah in the 1st round.
- Grizzlies (rating- 87) The Grizzlies are a really easy team to love, and Ja Morant is my favorite current player in the league. He plays with a fearless aggression to the rim that, hopefully, won’t wear out his 180 pound frame too early in his career. The Grizzlies as a whole play a very similar style. Coached by the unheralded Taylor Jenkins, Memphis is not a team you can make mistakes against. They’re sharks at the rim, routinely snagging offensive rebounds and outperforming teams in the paint (they lead the NBA paint ppg), they almost always start off productive (ranked 1st in the NBA in 1st QTR points), and their defense is very underrated (2nd in defensive efficiency since the All Star break). The only weakness for this team is big-game experience. We’ve seen them stumble under the bright lights (against the Celtics in early March, for example), and I can’t give them a higher rating until they prove they can hang with exceptional perimeter shooting teams. They’re 17th rank in 3-point percentage has me concerned. A futures wager isn’t worth it at this point, in my opinion.
- Nets (rating- 85) Arguably the most controversial team heading in the postseason for myriad reasons, the Brooklyn Nets are still one of the most feared units in the NBA. And that’s because of two very obvious reasons: Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. The duo hasn’t lost a beat amidst all the turmoil and off-the-court shenanigans. Durant has been an assassin from the floor, shooting an incomparable 51.8% (and his game is mostly mid-range, which makes it even more unbelievable) and averaging 30 ppg. Kyrie isn’t far behind, averaging 27.4 ppg at 48% and contributing 6 assists per game, too. Together with Seth Curry, who’s having an amazing 3 point-shooting season (42.2%), and other contributors like Andre Drummond, Bruce Brown, Patty Mills, Goran Dragic and Nick Claxton, this is a burgeoning Nets’ team that seems to be coming together at the right time. The question marks are on defense and chemistry. This team has NOT been healthy for any stretch this year, and Ben Simmons remains questionable to make his Nets’ debut. How fluid they’ll look in the postseason remains to be seen. This is also a defense that’s ranked as one of the worst in the association among playoff teams, rated 18th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break and 20th overall this season. Brooklyn will need to show me more consistency on both ends of the floor to get my vote of confidence – avoid futures on this team, for now.
- Warriors (rating- 84) Firstly, I’m pretty positive Steph Curry will return, and soon. Foot injuries aren’t easy to play with, but you can play. Golden State started off this season looking elite, and that was without Klay Thompson. I’m not so sure Klay is the best version of himself just yet, but he adds depth to their perimeter shooting (obviously) and he’s a very underrated defender. Warriors’ fans can have optimism knowing that Golden State ended the regular season looking a lot like the defense we saw at the beginning on the season. Easily the #1 unit in the first 3 months, Draymond Green’s injury put a pin in a defense that was thriving against great opponents. They’ll need to return to form against stellar competition in the West, especially since their offensive marks have been way down. Golden State has fallen to 18th in offensive efficiency since the All Star break, and without Steph there’s no clear offensive producer game to game. Still, Steve Kerr and an experienced, deep roster have the talent and poise to make a run. I would avoid futures on Golden State until we see more of them, with Steph, in postseason action.
- Raptors (rating- 83) Another team that few pundits are talking about but many more should, the Raptors are on my radar for a reason and as you’ll notice, they’re ranked higher than the team they’ll face in round 1. Toronto has shown us something Philly does not: consistency. When the Raptors go on a run, they maintain it. A top 5 defense since the All-Star break, the Raptors are composed of great shooting talent and a lot of length in the front court. That makes life terribly difficult for offenses infiltrating the paint and we’ve seen their defense in full force to end the season. It’s scary. For my money, they have one of the best starting rosters in basketball. Scottie Barnes is my pick for rookie of the year, showing signs of greatness on both offense and defense all year. Freddie VanFleet and Gary Trent Jr. are similarly built, veteran guards that rarely make mistakes. And Pascal Siakam is a sniper from the mid-range along with OG Anunoby, who held this team above water for months on end in Siakam’s absence. The only thing I’m concerned about for this team is depth. They have guys, no doubt, but I’m not sure if they can hang with the complete teams they’ll see in the postseason. Of course depth matters a little less in the playoffs since rotations are tighter, but it’s something to note. Long story short – Toronto is surging and if I’m Philly, I hate this matchup. Consider a look at a series future once that lines comes out.
- 76ers (rating- 82) There was a ton of excitement for this team following their trade with Brooklyn. Ding dong – Ben Simmons is gone, Philly got James Harden and to be fair, the marriage looked sensational off the jump. Harden and Embiid were lifting weights after games, Harden was all smiles amidst his new fan base, and it seemed like the 76ers finally had the roster composition they needed. Then, Harden became, well, Harden. Inconsistency reared its ugly head and we saw Harden’s propensity to falter in big game situations, again. What’s that going to look like in the playoffs? Joel Embiid deserves all the accolades and praise he’s receiving, but he can’t hold this team up by himself. The 76ers have the talent to win it all but I’m not sure it’s being maximized. I don’t trust Doc Rivers, either. Tyrese Maxey was exploding as one of Philly’s bright young stars but that’s simmered down since the trade. Players like Harden tend to have that affect on teams – big time scoring talent, exceptional playmaking ability, but he disrupts space and chemistry. Now Matisse Thybulle is officially OUT when Philly travels to Toronto in the first round and in my opinion, he’s their best defensive player. I have a feeling this could be sad ending for a complete basketball team that can’t seem to figure themselves out.
Teams to Watch: Hawks, Timberwolves, Clippers
