Alright ladies and gents, it’s JANUARY. Idk if I’ve ever experienced a crueler month than December 2022 in my NBA betting career, but I have renewed hope in a new calendar year. This is usually where the NBA (finally) starts making sense.
In that vein, I like a few more plays than usual today. Let’s get it.
Celtics 1Q -0.5 (-105 on FD), to win 1 unit
Celtics/Nuggets 1H O119 (-108 at FD), to win 1.5 units
The New Year usually brings out the best in everyone, which means we should see a great version of both the Nuggets and Celtics today. Thing is, Denver usually overwhelms teams early at home but I don’t think they can do that to Boston. The Celtics defense is elite and their team chemistry is back to a sky-high level and that should mean early success that’s jarring for Denver’s average defense. Eventually the Nuggets will go on a run and inflate the score, so we’ll take an early over, too.
Kings/Grizzlies under 240.5 (-110), to win 2 units
This total is too high– it’s only there because of the surge in points we’ve seen lately in the NBA, but only squares are taking the over today. The Grizzlies have been winning with their defense lately; they’re the #1 team in DEF EFF over their last 5 games, while the Kings have fallen out of the top 10 in OFF EFF. Memphis has been a top 10 defense all season at home and the Kings’ pace is slowing. They match up well against each other, too — two feisty Western teams who can make life difficult for similarly built, smaller lineups. Give me the under for 2 units.
Wizards/Bucks over 226 (-110), to win 1 unit
Maybe it’s simply the absence of Jrue Holiday lately but the Bucks’ defense hasn’t looked elite at all. Bradley Beal should be back today, which is a huge offensive boost for Washington, but even if he doesn’t, the Wizards are a good perimeter team and the Bucks have struggled defending that area. Giannis can dominate again, too– like the over.
