NBA Premiums, 1.17

Winning day in basketball Monday, let’s get some more. Will send CBB if I have time to handicap it later today.

Astoundingly, the 13 of the last 15 Spurs games have gone over, and they’ve gone over by an average margin of 10 ppg. That’s incredible. San Antonio, who’s playing the worst defense in the NBA for the last month, is giving up a ton of points every game, and that’s exactly what the Nets need right now. We’re benefitting from an underwhelming number because Durant is out, but this should still skyrocket over that total. Brooklyn can easily score in the 120s against the Spurs’ porous defense, and San Antonio’s pace and facilitating on the offensive end usually means enough efficiency to keep up and catalyze the game. San Antonio may cover early, but the Nets need to keep winning. I think they cover in a very high scoring affair.

I’m undecided about the line on this game but I want to find ways to play on the Nuggets. Taking them in the 1H because they’ve been beating teams by more than 10 points in the first half the last 5 games, and any team visiting Denver at altitude seems to be taken aback by their efficiency lately. They also play better defense at home. Denver is simply one of the best if not the best team in the NBA right now, and two good performances by the Blazers against a bad Dallas defense doesn’t exactly impress me. Portland lives and dies by the 3-ball and the Nuggets aren’t that terrible at defending it, either. This is a divisional game where Jokic will probably be heavily involved, so give me a big game from him, while Bones Hyland and other supplementary contributors may not play tonight. Points from Denver should come often, especially against a Portland defense that’s been very average lately.