Morning, people!
We’ve started off WHITE HOT in the NBA and I’m here for it. Appreciate all the kind messages. It won’t continue at this rate but you already know that. We’ll ride it for as long as we can, though!
Sunday Disclaimer: If you don’t read any other notes in this email, read this. Sundays are WEIRD in the NBA, and they’re especially weird during the NFL season. Last season I swear the most zany shit happened over and over again on the ol’ Sabbath. So, ergo, don’t expect many plays, if any, from me on Sundays in the NBA. I can give my leans and they’ll be sharp as hell, but you might as well wager on the insane happening because, it does. And it kind of makes sense. Sundays in America = rest. It’s a football day. Maybe NBA players really don’t want to be out there, idk. Anywho, don’t complain if/when I don’t release plays. We’ll be better off.
Onto the picks and my full card is below!
NBA Premiums, 10.22 (11-3, +8.25 units):
Rockets/Bucks over 231.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a rough travel spot for Houston and Milwaukee will probably smash them but I like the over a little more here. The Rockets can score and they like to go fast. Milwaukee historically runs faster at home and it’s a great opportunity for their offense to get in-rhythm, a scrimmage if you will, with little pressure. Neither team will want to play much defense. Take the over.
Thunder +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I’m higher on the Thunder than most people. Giddy, Gilgeous-Alexander and Dort are a formidable trio and they’ll surprise teams a lot this year. The Nuggets are fresh off a big road victory that they wanted after a bad opening loss. Really tough travel spot, even though they’re at home, and Denver has always been an up and down team. Idk if that’s a Jokic thing– other players just don’t go as hard b/c they have him and kinda let down– or if it’s a coaching thing. The Nuggets just aren’t consistent yet and I think OKC is a live dog today. Gotta take them with the points.
CFB Week 7 Picks ( 30-33-7, -9.46 units):
CFB Season is winding down in my brain since, firstly, we haven’t seen much success and I’,m wondering if I ever should have handicapped it in the first place. Just too much going on with the NFL and now with the NBA. I’ll probably have a few plays I like every week but I’m going light from now on.
UCLA +6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
UCLA/Oregon under 70.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Two physical defenses coming off a bye and this is a huge Pac-12 game. Like the under, this total is a little too high, and UCLA can score and has a tough defense to keep Oregon in line. Yes, even in Eugene.
Notre Dame -27 (-110), to win 1 unit
One of CFB’s worst teams come to South Bend and after a piss-poor loss to Stanford, ifg the Irish can’t get up and look elite here, they have more issues than Marcus Freeman.
Alabama -21 (-110), to win 2 units
Response spot for Alabama at home, and now every game needs a few more exclamation points for the Crimson Tide. They roll.
Purdue ML (+115), to win 0.57 units
Wisconsin is soft, end of explanation.
Army -6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
UL Monroe literally can’t stop anyone and Army is coming off 3 wins and I think they get UP for this one against a very beatable foe with an offense that can be stymied.
UFC 280 on Oct 22nd, (12-12, +11.88 units in 2022):
Main Event
Islam Makhachev (-150), to win 2.5 units
Over 2.5 rounds (+125), to win 1.25 units
Watch this video and just TRY not to get excited about this main event. One of the biggest cards in years and one of the best fights I can remember, two perceived prodigies face off on October 22nd, one day before my birthday, and needless to say I’m fucking pumped. Charles Oliveira deserves everything he’s gotten, but this is Islam’s time to shine. Islam may be legitimately unbeatable. I realize that Oliveira can take punishment like no one’s business and he just continues to prove doubters wrong, maybe he does it again here, but I’m willing to bet a lot that he does not. Islam is Khabib 2.0 and Khabib is literally the best UFC fighter of all time so, that’s a rather scary prospect. He defends himself perfectly, he has an immeasurable gas tank, he has that weird, rare power that comes from seemingly nowhere and he WILL take down Oliveira. I’m also betting he wins by points or wins later in the fight after he wears down Oliveira.
TJ Dillashaw (+140), to win 2.8 units
Sorry not sorry, I like Aljamain Sterling isn’t as sharp as he thinks he is, though defeating Peter Yan was one hell of a win. Although, according to most experts and definitely in my opinion, Yan should have won that fight. Now Sterling waltzes into this contest probably thinking he’s the man. I love TJ to show him emphatically that he is NOT. Dillashaw has one of the best gas tanks in the UFC and while his suspension took him out of the game for a while, he got warmed up again with a nice split decision win against the elite Cory Sandhagen. Many forget how dominant and overwhelming TJ was in his prime – I do not. Dude is still only 36 years old and he’s probably healthier than he’s been in a long time. Dillashaw. for the win
