Let’s try and forget about the insanity of this NFL weekend and move forward to a sport that at least makes more sense to us on a day-to-day basis, the NBA.
NBA Premiums (23-11-1, +12.23 units):
Hornets/Kings over 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
There’s a chance this line moves against us, what else is new, but it won’t make me like it any less. The last two games for the Hornets are a bit of an aberration– the Hornets played down to the Magic and shot VERY poorly, and then the Golden State Warriors tried to assert better defense on them in what was ultimately an OT loss. The Hornets have now shot poorly in two straight contests and they’re officially way overdue for a big scoring game. The Kings are exclusively in high scoring games and don’t play much defense. I like how these two teams match up, too, with bigger athletes on the Kings but more physical athletes for Charlotte. Offense wins and points win– we get an over.
Nets/Pacers under 237.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Although the Nets are certainly due for some positive regression of offense, it doesn’t mean they will blow the doors off the Pacers in this matchup. Something’s off in Brooklyn but it starts with their defense. Simmons needs to settle in and he’s an excellent defender when he does, and hopefully in a rematch there’s no way they let Haliburton and company completely dominate them again. The Nets played piss-poor, awful defense in that game and shouldn’t call themselves a pro basketball team after it. I think variance hits Indiana and the Nets get some good feels in this one, and starting with their defense.
Raptors -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Raptors could be 4-2 or 5-1, they’re good and very well-coached. The Hawks are a fake-news-4-2 and easily could have been 0-6. They’re just not rounding into form yet and I think it shows against a team with a lot of chemistry, length, toughness, and in a great spot at home. All Raptors for me.
Grizzlies anything -4.5 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
I think Ja Morant might return in this game and even if he doesn’t, the Memphis Grizzlies are #1 in offensive efficiency and should answer the bell after a game where they just didn’t play any defense. Explosive and when motivated with high discipline, I expect the Grizzlies to overwhelm a Jazz squad that’s still playing over their heads.
