Getting so sick of these 2-2 days, borrriiiinnggg. Let’s have a clear winning day. Like a lot today in the NBA, perhaps a little over-exposed, but we have to trust our gut.
Also – will look at CBB and CFB today, although no promises! Depends on how much time I have; Tuesday is usually my NFL capping day.
NBA Picks, 11.15 (45-34-1, +6.79 units):
Grizzlies/Pelicans 1H over 111.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Grizzlies tend to allow more points and score more points in the first half. We’ve seen that in the 1H of their last 5 games in particular, with most of those halves going into the 100-teens and their totals near or over 60. The Pelicans are a faster-paced team in general, and Desmond Bane, one of the most important defensive bodies for the Grizzlies, is doubtful for tonight’s game. Grizzlies games have slowed down tremendously in the 2nd half so I don’t want to take the full game. First half, over.
Knicks/Jazz over 229.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Jazz 1H -2 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Jazz -4 (-115), to win 1 unit
Here I go with another damn over but I’m sorry, it just makes too much sense. Offensively the Jazz match up very well with the Knicks, who are allowing more points and more rebounds than 28 other teams. These are two top 5 teams in pace over the last 5 games and I don’t see that changing tonight. The Jazz have also been very good at home and they’re showing way more chemistry than the Knicks, who are beginning to look clumsy and they can seemingly only beat bad teams. The Jazz have been a juggernaut at home, beating teams by an average margin of 13.8 ppg. In the first halves of those games, they out-scored their opponent by an average margin of 12.4 ppg. That’s pretty astounding, and I’m going to trust that both continue.
Spurs TT under 108 or more (-110), to win 1.5 units
Blazers Alt line -10 (+125), to win 1.25 units
I tried to find a way to bet on this game because it’s such a horrible spot for San Antonio. This will be their 4th game in 6 days and they’re fresh off a dud of a performance against the Warriors last night, dropping only 95 points at Golden State. The Blazers are coming off a solid 3 days of rest and their defense has been top 10 all season. They move at the slowest pace in the NBA and since they’re fresh and able to play the kind of game they want, I think they can control this contest at home. If Nurkic is out that isn’t ideal, but the Spurs are a smaller team and I’m not sure if he’ll be as essential for their win. The Blazers tend to control tempo when they’re in a good spot, with games ending around 200 points most of the time. I trust that it’ll stay lower scoring and I think the Blazers, fresh off a 4-2 road trip and riding momentum as one of the best teams in the West, can obliterate San Antonio at home. Alt line, activated.
