Nets/Wizards under 223.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Nets are still in disarray among all the chaos and they don’t have a coach just yet. Kyrie is out, a major factor in their total offensive production. The Wizards are at home after a big win with plenty of rest, and they’re a bend-don’t-break defense that limits teams to 40 pts in the paint, under 50 rebounds per game, and 111 ppg (11th). I like this to be a slow moving, awkward game for Durant in DC. In Kevin’s home city, he’ll put too much on his shoulders and ISO ball will slow down the game, too.
Bucks/T-Wolves under 227.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Bucks are the #1 team in defensive efficiency so far this season. When the T-Wolves play at home, they’re a better defensive team. It’ll be strength against strength under the rim, as the length and size of Milwaukee rivals the big boys of Minnesota. Minnesota’s pace may create some high scoring at some point, but I think the Bucks can slow it down and make it a tough game. The Timberwolves also just got humbled by the Suns, who are proving to still be a titan in the West, and they’ll look to stifle the Bucks’ offense. The Bucks are relying on their defense to win and they’re a proud 7-0. Like a very competitive game and an under in this one.
Celtics -7 (-110), to win 1 unit
This number has been steady where it is and if we think the Celtics are still an elite team (I do), this is a fantastic response spot at home after a disappointing loss to the Cavs. Cleveland has bested Boston twice this year already, which should leave the defending Eastern Conference Champions feeling a little more vulnerable than they’re used to this early in the season. This is a classic spot for the Bulls to stumble and get blown out- we know they don’t play as well against elite teams or on the road. Give me Boston to rally in the second and overwhelm the Bulls at home. I wouldn’t take the Bulls in the 3rd QTR this time, either.
PS: My good buddies LOVE Grant Williams to go over his PAR prop. He’s gone over in all but one game this season and this sets up to be a testy game where they’ll need a very active Williams. Not official for me, but I like it!
Lakers -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Shockingly, there’s some positive news around the Lakers right now. Russell Westbrook has played really well the last two games and the Lakers are winning at home. They stay at home for a big game against Cleveland, but the Jazz are in the middle of a tough road stretch. The Lakers will want it more, in my opinion, and the Jazz are due for some regression. Let’s face it. Ugly, but I have to play on LAL tonight.
