NBA Premiums, 11.5

The Magic typically play at the pace of their opponent and that means they’ll be running up and down the floor chasing after a fast-paced Kings’ squad. The Magic also play at a faster pace at home (10th overall), and the Kings, for whatever reason, play exceptionally faster on the road (3rd overall). Sacramento is considerably more talented than Orlando offensively. Like the matchup, like the pace. I have this at 233.

Lately the Hornets can’t score points. In their last 5 games they’re averaging only 101.6 ppg and they’re 22nd in OFF EFF at home. For whatever reason, they’re also ranked as a bottom 10 team in pace at home. Not sure what that’s all about. There’s a chance this is a spot for regression since Brooklyn just played last night, but the Nets are playing better defense recently. I also like that neither team is great at creating second-chance opportunities. The Hornets are just too injured and this is a sleepy spot for Brooklyn who won’t look to show out with any huge offensive performances. Get in, get out, sleepy, low scoring game and the Hornets don’t get close to 110, IMO. I have this game ending 109-101.

Atlanta has a massive rest advantage but I don’t care. Zion and most of the Pelicans’ starters didn’t play anywhere close to 30 minutes last night and Atlanta is a short drive. New Orleans has a lot of momentum right now; they’re just clicking as a young, exciting team. They’re what Atlanta wants to be but I don’t think the Hawks are there yet. The Pelicans’ length and interior offense should be a problem against a Hawks’ team that can rely too much on perimeter efficiency. Give me the Pels in a short upset.

I like this as an excellent setup for Jokic at home going up against a small Spurs’ squad. We’ve seen that with Siakam and Embiid when they went up against SAS and in general, the Spurs’ just aren’t playing great defense against anyone. It’s an ideal spot for Denver at home and while the line (-10) is probably slightly too big, this is an angle we can take advantage of. PS: Prop plays won’t count towards our ATS record- we’ll keep a separate record of how often these hit.

This is priced wrong. Mark Madsen is an elite, silver-medal-Olympian wrestler who hasn’t shown any flaws in his takedown offense or defense. Grant Dawson is the younger, sexier play with elite wrestling ability himself, but that shouldn’t make him the favorite. I think Madsen is better on the mat and I always side with the superior wrestler in these cases. It bodes well for us!