I’m told some didn’t get my NBA plays earlier– sorry about that. Not sure what happened. Here they are:
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Well I’d be lying if I didn’t say these NBA games are really pissing me off. Last night I want to say we just flat got a few things wrong, maybe that’s true in the case of the Suns’ loss, but from what I’m seeing it’s a lot of mega-variance hitting on the nights I’m betting on a tendency going the other direction. I’m told I can’t get too married to the why/what/how so I won’t– onto another day!
Unfortunately, there’s a LOT I like on the card today, ha. Hold onto your seats!
Heat -11.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
There’s a reason the line came out this high. San Antonio has been getting blown out every game for weeks but they decided to win one the other night. The Heat are overdue for a breakout, all encompassing performance. Especially at home. Miami dominates by 20.
Mavs/Bulls 1Q over 57.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Lately, no matter what the spot is or who they’re against, the Mavs are engaging in very high-level offense early. They also don’t apply the same brand of defense early. The Bulls are in a very good spot and will be ready to run the floor and keep up. Love a high scoring game, but would rather take it earlier. I’d also rather rely on Dallas’ first unit.
Clippers/Wiz under 220.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This has under written all over it. Two defenses primed to take on two less-than-consistent, clunky offenses. Both of these defenses have been shitty recently, too, which only makes this more probable, IMO. Two slow-paced teams looking to flex physically on each other – I have this at 211.
Celtics/Warriors 1Q over 60.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Celtics 1Q -0.5 (-115), to win 2 units
Celtics/Warriors 1H over 120.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Draymond Green over 8.5 pts (-125), to win 1 unit
Marcus Smart over 11.5 points (-120), to win 1 unit
Lots that I like in this game – let me elaborate. This game means A LOT to the Celtics, who are facing the opponent that kept their dreams in the closet last year after Golden State booted them out of the playoffs. In big time, national games like this, offenses almost always show out early. Both teams will try to put daggers in each other from the jump, which should result in a lot of aggressive drives to the basketball and fast-paced action. Boston and Golden State play at a fast pace and the Warriors’ run even faster at home. Boston’s offense has been historically good and GS is almost always more potent at the Chase Center. I think this game gets physical and slows down later in the contest (look for a live under if it gets too inflated), but give me some early over and early dominance from Boston. Marcus Smart and Draymond Green are tougher and more poised than most NBA players in these situations, so I like both of them to cover their points total in a high scoring game. TBD if the other stars will show up, but I’d lean over for almost all of ’em.
Timberwolves +5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
There’s some buy signs on Minnesota right now. Their pace, offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding, and just plain energy on the floor all feels different lately without KAT on the floor. Maybe they just needed one of their big-men out of the lineup to create more space, who knows, but right now it’s resulting in more chemistry and more wins. The Blazers have been struggling at home and I think we all kind of knew that they weren’t one of the NBA elites. Over the last few weeks they’ve really started to regress on both sides of the court and I think this is closer to their norm. Minnesota can win this game – I like them to at least keep it close.
