I hate myself, lol. Adding an additional NBA play now that we got some more news about Jimmy Butler. My leans are also below, along with 2 lookahead lines we like.
Let’s, fucking, go!
12.20 Slate:
Jazz -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Jazz treated their game against the Cavs like we thought they would, barely putting for a full effort in the process and only playing most of their key guys (Conley, Clarkson, Markkanen) around 30 minutes or less. We don’t know if they’ll rest players tomorrow but indications suggest not, considering. The Pistons are only off one extra day of rest and while they can be feisty, they’re mostly 5-6 scale roster shouldn’t be enough to overcome a 6-8 scale roster on Utah. The Jazz get a nice reprieve at home for a Thursday game and then a long break to pair with it (they don’t play all weekend), so plenty of reason to finish their road trip with a bang.
Bulls ML (+105), to win 1.05 units
Jimmy Butler is now doubtful with an illness and even though Chicago is a mess right now, this is a great correction spot after permitting 150 points in their last game. The Bulls need something to bring them together– this is a good chance to make it happen. I think they will win straight up.
Warriors/Knicks over 224 (-110), to win 2 units
Warriors/Knicks over 221 (-110), to win 1 unit
I love this number; I have it at 234. The Warriors looked good without Curry at Toronto, and I love that boost in momentum for Jordan Poole. Dude hasn’t looked great but one thing he’s good at and continues to be: high paced, assist-laden drives where he can spark an offense. Of course if he drops 43 points, even better. The Warriors may experience more chemistry knowing they need to come together and pick up the slack without Curry. James Wiseman returned from the G-league against Philly and gave the team a good burst of energy, too. This is why Kerr practiced so much with his bench early; it’s as if he knew they would need to adjust during the season. The Knicks have been red-hot and while their defense has been elite, their offense is also top 10. They’ve slowed down a little, but like any team they have the proclivity to play faster against a team like Golden State. I think the pace will be high, the game will be full of beautiful passing, and we’ll see a high-scoring battle. The Knicks’ efficiency is set to digress, too, IMO, and I think Golden State can force them out of their comfort zone (which will only mean turnovers, fouls, and more points). OVER.
Grizzlies/Nuggets over 233.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hey- I got some good news. The Nuggets and Grizzlies are among the best transition offenses in the NBA. It’s literally how Memphis scores (because their shooting efficiency isn’t actually that great), they just drive and fly up the court and draw fouls. The Nuggets have adopted a much faster pace recently and they’re in a comfortable spot at home. Both of these high-octane offenses should fuel each other, and they have good matchups, too. Jokic and the Denver size can thrive on offense, but we all know that Denver doesn’t like to play much defense. Memphis will take advantage and even though they’re the better defensive team, I like the Nuggets’ recent offensive rhythm and I expect it to go unchanged Tuesday night. I like a game closer to 240.
Leans:
Warriors +5.5
Grizzlies +1
Suns -7
Thursday, 12.22
Utah -7 or less, to win 1.5 units
When this line comes out, take it at 7 or less and don’t say I didn’t warn you. I hate the way Washington is playing and this is an ideal spot for Utah. The Wizards struggle defending good transition teams and that’s ALL the Jazz do. They’ll be at home in a much better spot in their final contest before Christmas – it’s an ideal setup.
Christmas
Bucks +4 (-110), to win 2 units
Too many points for what should be the Eastern Conference Finals in 5 1/2 months. Maybe this line goes up and I’m being dumb, but if anything the books should respect Milwaukee and consider this nearly a pick-em. I know how well Boston has played but Milwaukee will punch back at every turn and oh by the way, Giannis is still the most dominant player on any hardwood floor. We’ll look to take the first half over when it comes out, too, if the price is right.
