NBA Premiums, 12.21

The Raptors, just like the Knicks, will be on their 5th game in 7 days and they’ve been on the road. Ergo, this is a terrible spot. The Raptors aren’t doing ANYTHING well on offense right now. They’re good at the rim and they’re okay in the mid-range, but they’re not consistent enough. Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. have fallen off as consistent contributors, and Pascal Siakam can rarely do it all by himself. He’s not really built that way. The Knicks will be tired in this game but they take pride in defense and their shots probably won’t fall as easily Wednesday. EVERYTHING was falling for them on Tuesday. They’ll go at a slower pace because they’re tired after being forced to run the floor with GS, which will only stimulate an already pedestrian Raptors tempo. The Raptors may win this but that doesn’t mean they’ll score a lot of points.

Oh, the poor Golden State Warriors! Fresh off a back-to-back where they tried their damndest to overcome a stingy Knicks’ defense, now they’ll face the length of Brooklyn, who absolutely EATS in the mid-range, and that’s an area where GS is really struggling this year. As Kerr looks to work in Lamb and Wiseman and other younger rotational players, they’ll continue to experience struggle-city in all things defense (and lots of bad fouls). Patty Mills is back and he contributes to the mid-range too, along with Curry, Kyrie, and of course Durant. This is also an insane scheduling spot in favor of Brooklyn, and even though the line has risen this high, I don’t think they’ll have any issue covering it. Klay and others could sit tonight, too, in this horrendous spot, while the Nets are completely healthy and the energy is extremely positive for the first time in a long time in Brooklyn. All Nets for me – I think they smash Golden State early and easily eclipse their point total in a statement game.

When AD isn’t on the floor, the Lakers’ defense just isn’t that imposing. Sabonis might be out tonight and normally that wouldn’t sit well for an over since he’s just a big contributor for the Kings, but he’s also a key figure for defensive rebounds and defense in general. In other words, the net loss might not be that significant. Both teams would have to play small ball too, which isn’t a bad thing. Russell Westbrook sitting would be a real crutch in the second unit’s speed but Sacramento’s perpetual high tempo should help create transition fireworks throughout the game. The Lakers play well against bad defenses and let’s be clear, the Kings have improved in some areas but they’re not a “good” defense. The Kings run in transition on nearly 40% of their live defensive rebounds, too, so even if LAL misses and tries to bring down this total, Sacramento can capitalize and help us out. I like a lot of points early in this one.

The Clippers lead the NBA in 1st QTR points allowed (26.3) and I like that they had a little trouble with the Hornets in their last contest. I hope PG plays but I love that the Hornets will be without Terry Rozier. Charlotte finally got their first win in a long time the other night against Sacramento and the pace of their offense can be a problem for some teams, but at the Staples Center against a top 3 defense and a team that’s already played you isn’t an ideal spot for the Hornets. This is also their 5th game in 7 days so it’s reasonable to think that maybe Charlotte tries to retain some of their gas in this contest. The only defensive issue LAC has had is in the mid-range, too, and that’s an area where the Hornets shoot very infrequently (30th in the NBA overall). Like the under early, and wouldn’t shy away from sprinkling on some other unders later.