539/ 540 Minnesota at Washington 1H Total 111.5/ Game total 218
Books opened this full game total at 216.5 and it now sits at 218. Just a few hours ago we saw this total creep down to 216. So we’re getting some different looks from the market. Currently, 89% of the money is on the over in this one.
Looking at the matchup, we have both teams in the bottom half of the NBA in offensive efficiency and both in the top half in defensive efficiency. When we look at points scored, we have Minnesota coming in 14th (108 ppg) and Washington at 19th (106 ppg). We can see Minnesota may not be the best shooting squad thus far at 26th in FG% and 21st in 3FG%. While the Wizards sit at 11th FG%, they also have been struggling with the 3PT shot hitting at a 32% clip, 26th in the league.
Typically, I think defensive trends control the pace in basketball. And in this instance, we have two teams that play defense (both top 9 in blocked shots, MIN 4th in steals), rebound well (both in top 11), and aren’t the best shooting squads. All these looks equal a recipe for the under. The Wizards are 8-13 O/U, and 2-6 1H under at home. Although the T-Wolves are 5-3 O/U on the road and are hot, on the season they are also 8-13 O/U. I like the trends and the matchup for the under.
539 MIN UN 218* / 1H UN 111.5*
Other Recent Market Swings
Once injury reports begin to be released at 5 pm prior to game starts, we often see swings in the market. These swings can give telling information about these teams’ roster.
541/ 542 Atlanta at Indiana
Seeing some money come in on Indiana as it looks like Cam Reddish is also added to the Hawks’ IR. Injuries are piling up for the Hawks as SG Bogdanivc has been ruled out since Sunday. I expect Hawks’ PG Trae Young to take more of the game upon himself, which means more scoring, less defense. The Hawks thus far are 0-4 ATS in away conference games. I’m looking towards the over and the Pacers in this one, although the market is heavier on the under as they’re probably wondering where the scoring will come from for the Hawks.
542 Indiana -2* and Over 217*
547/548 Cleveland at Miami 1H Total 105
Books have adjusted to the fact that both of these teams are 1H under teams so far taking this total down to 105. We heard today that Heat C Bam Odebayo is out with a thumb injury and here we have another team whose guards will be looking to take more control over their offense.
Looking at the trends coming into this one, Cleveland is one of the best 1H spread teams at 16-5 1H ATS and 3-1 ATS in conference away games. We can see Miami is a good Home ATS team at 6-2 on the season, so I expect they’ll be looking to establish themselves early in this one. They are also 1-4 O/U versus Conference foes at home this season. I think the books have adjusted too much, and with Bam out I like the over even more. Because we see CLE likes to get up on teams early and Miami is a good home team I expect them to not let the Cavs try to take this one away early by outscoring them.
547 CLE 1H total OV 105 (-110)*
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