Well yesterday kinda sucked– I went 0-3 in my picks, that’s quite rare for me this season, but managed to land 2 live bets for those who follow me on Twitter. That was a nice way to get redemption but I expect better overall results tonight. The Hornets and Wizards really shit the bed Tuesday; hopefully these teams show a little more gusto.
Spurs/Grizzlies over 222.5 (-110), 2 units and Spurs +4 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. Things slow down in the playoffs usually, that’s true. Nerves and big moments fluster even the best teams and sometimes the best players, but I don’t think that’ll matter in this contest. The Spurs are a good defensive team, not a great one. The same can be said for the Grizzlies. As the season trudged on, both of these units saw considerable regression in their ability to prevent other teams from scoring. Memphis is 16th and San Antonio is 19th in points allowed for that reason. While Memphis is 6th in defensive efficiency, a damn good mark, that stat is often skewed by how many points they tend to score (they average 113.3 ppg and habitually eclipsed that total in the second half of the season). If there’s one area that Memphis really struggles, it’s in closing out games. They’re 21-17 ATS as a favorite but that’s also a skewed stat– the books never really gave the Grizzlies too much credit so covering their lines as a favorite wasn’t terribly difficult. If they were lined like the Suns or Nuggets or other elite teams in the Western Conference, it’d be a different story. Look at the Grizzlies schedule and you’ll see that blowouts are very rare. When they win it’s by 3 points or 5 points or 4 points etc. That’s probably why their point differential sits at +1, right smack-dab middle of the NBA pack. I think 4 points is too many for this team to cover.
The Spurs are the best ATS road team in the NBA, covering at a rate of 65.7% (23-12-1). That’s one reason why I like them tonight but it’s not the only reason. There’s a significant coaching advantage here: the Spurs’ Gregg Popovich vs. the Grizzlies’ Taylor Jenkins, and a big-time experience difference too. The Spurs are young overall but they have players that have competed in big games before: DeRozan, Mills, Gay. The Grizzlies are fresh-faced and eager and in my opinion one of the deeper rosters in the NBA. Ja Morant may be the best player on the floor, too. Still, the veteran leadership and coaching experience for San Antonio is a big mismatch.
It’s scary to bet on an underdog after last night’s games but I’m pulling the trigger. In what should be a high-scoring and competitive affair, give me the Spurs +4 and the over.
Lakers -5 (-115), 2 units: I know how many of you love to hate on King James, but the 10-time NBA Finals contender and face of the NBA appears to have out-smarted us all once again. There may not be a savvier player in the history of the game. After lamenting over the brief pause between NBA seasons due to the COVID year, it was obvious that the game was finally taking a toll on the 18 year pro, so Lebron chose to rest and treat his ailments through the final 2 months of the season. Flash forward to mid-May and now we see a refreshed and rejuvenated Lebron and wouldn’t you know it– team LAL is heading into the playoffs on a red-hot 5 game winning streak. Anthony Davis is finding his groove, Dennis Schroder is back and healthy, and Drummond, Kuzma, Caruso, Harrell, Gasol and all the Lakers skill-players are ready to roll. Look at LAL’s depth chart and you won’t see a single injury designation. In the words of good ol’ JR– “By gawd almighty, he’s done it again!” The Lakers just seem to find a way and in my opinion, all Western Conference teams should be afraid; very afraid.
But since they only managed to sneak into the 7th seed, that means they have to face the 8th seeded Warriors in the first play-in game. As hot as the Lakers are right now, the Warriors may be hotter. Golden State is riding a 6-game winning streak into tonight and the true MVP, Steph Curry, has never looked more confident. Golden State thrives on movement without the ball, most of which centers around Curry, and finding obstruction-free opportunities to get off shots without contest. The question is– can Steph and his supporting cast get open enough against the NBA’s #1 defense?
One thing that’s underrated about Lebron (I could say a ton here) is how adept he is on defense. The big man can literally cover anyone. We’ve seen him shut down players half his size like Derrick Rose and Kyrie Irving (and Steph Curry, famously), and we’ve seen him take on and stuff big men, too. The Lakers are most dangerous in this game because of how they can confuse and overwhelm the Warriors on defense. While I think Curry won’t be completely stifled tonight, I actually still like his over points prop, the Lakers can and will limit him. That will put big responsibility on the shoulders of players like Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green. Golden State will miss Kelly Oubre Jr.’s presence tonight, which I think is more significant than most people realize.
The Lakers don’t have that issue. No one in the NBA is more relaxed and poised than Lebron in big-game situations. That means that young, key contributors like Anthony Davis and Kyle Kuzma and Dennis Schroder can play without the same pressure on their back. In their collective mind– “Lebron will lead us if we mess up.” There’s no greater gift for a basketball player to have than calm and confidence entering a big game like this.
ATS records won’t help you tonight– the Lakers are 14-22 at home (38.9%) while the Warriors are 14-22 on the road. This game is about pride, momentum, and a team built to win championships. Golden State is small, quick, and proficient in perimeter shooting. The Lakers are big, methodical, exceptional on defense, stacked with great scorers, and they have the best leader on the court. At home, the Lakers poise and experience will be too much for the underdog Warriors. Bet on the Lakers and bet them without refrain.
