Friday 3/1
Rhode Island vs Dayton -7.5 O/U 136
Let’s go to the Atlantic 10! So here is a game which both teams going in different directions. Dayton is working on a top 2 seed in their conference competing with VCU and Davidson while Rhode Island really has nothing to play for. Rhode Island has only had 2 road games so far in February and has only scored an average of 47 points. As a matter of fact they only average 66 points per game on the road in a pretty bad conference. Now they have to play a team in Dayton that has the top offense in their conference on Kenpom and the 3rd best defense. Now Rhode Island just ended that bad streak of 5 losses by beating up on one of the worst teams in college basketball in George Washington shooting 54% and scoring way more than their average. After getting it right for their own fans I think they have a little bit of a flat spot regressing back to the mean against the Fliers. Dayton plays the 13th slowest pace in their conference at 64.7 possessions per game to Rhode Islands 66.3. Rhode island is the worst 3 point shooting team in the nation. Dayton will not have to do much to beat this team but I also love the under! The under in Rhode Island games since February 2nd is 6-1
Under 136 Large and Dayton -7.5
Saturday 3/2
LSU vs Alabama +3 O/U 152
Nothing more says bubble to me looking at an Alabama. We have a couple of questionable guys for this game. Dazon Ingram for Bama left last game with a quad injury and he is a 27 minute player and LSU’s best point guard Tremont Waters is questionable with an illness but I expect him to play since he missed the A&M game. Looking at this spot, we can see that Alabama has everything to play for here and LSU has a slight look ahead to avenge their loss against Florida. The Tigers are a strange team to me this year. They seem to play up to the great teams and down to the bad teams. They shot terribly against the Aggies last game at only 34.8% so I usually like to come back on them but the spot is a little worrisome to me with Florida on deck and Alabama’s Motivation. One thing that I can count on is that both teams play pretty fast and their last game went all the way to 167 points with LSU winning at home 88 – 79. If LSU has any weakness it is their defense only ranking 6th in the SEC and 56th in the nation while Alabama averages 76.5 points at home. I like the Tide’s desperation to win this game. Not enough injury info for me to take a side but I will have some sort of play on the over. I have this game LSU 83 to 79
Over 152 all the way to 156
Nevada vs Utah State +1 O/U 143
Utah State is another Bubble team playing at home for revenge against the best team in the Mountain West! The Aggies are 9-4 ATS at home while the Wolfpack is a monster 7-3 ATS on the road. Looking at the splits you would see that Nevada is a much better team at home than on the road giving up about 10 more points and scoring about 3 points less. Utah State is a much better team at home than on the road scoring 6 more points per game and giving up a whopping 8 less. Going by splits Utah State wins this game 76-70 but I think it is harder to go by this seeing that Nevada has only lost 2 games all year and tend to let off the gas at the end of each game. These teams met earlier this year with the Wolfpack crushing the Aggies by 23 points but Utah State may be the most improved team since then in the nation. The biggest factor to me in this game that I do not like for Nevada is that Utah State is not only playing for revenge, they are also trying to get an at large ticket to the NCAA tournament. Nevada is most likely in anyways yet this is still a meaningful game for them not wanting to be tied for the conference. Being that both of these teams blow out their opponents in conference and I think that their tempo numbers may be showing a bit to low for this high caliber game. Last year this game went to 180
Over 143 big
Michigan State vs Indiana +8 O/U 134
Home dog alert and a real smelly one here with Indiana. This is a very weird game because Michigan State celebrated when they beat Michigan like they already clinched the division which makes this a huge let down spot but on the other hand, Michigan State lost to the Hoosiers at home and may be looking for revenge. No big 10 team is better than State against the spread as an away team at 8-3 and 20-8 overall while Indiana is a dismal 11-16 ATS. The scaring thing for me is that Indiana is fighting hard to get back on the bubble. They know that they can beat this Michigan State team and is 3-0 ATS their last 3 games. It is also hard to know how to fade a Michigan state team this good ATS even though they lost 2 of their three best players to injury in Joshua Langford and Nick Ward out another week at least. Due to the spot and the fact that the injuries may finally catch up with State, I have to look towards the under in this game. I do not think that Juwan Howard or Devonte green will have a ton of luck against Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins for Sparty. I also think that State slows the pace down on this one. I think this game will be slow and buckets will come as a premium. Indiana’s last 2 games went over time and both should have went under the total.
Under 134 and lean to Indiana
Kentucky vs Tennessee -4 O/U 145
Do you think the Vols remembers how it felt to be blown out last game against the Wildcats and being taking out of the number 1 seed? I think they do. I also think that Kentucky is one of the best 5 teams in the nation when healthy. The Key is, “when healthy”. Now some people faded Kentucky when they lost big man Reid Travis to injury and Kentucky answered back anyways blowing out Auburn by 27 and coming back to beat Arkansas in the look ahead spot. Now the question is how will they get up for this game knowing that Tennessee is looking for revenge? Tennessee still hasn’t beaten at top 25 team but hasn’t had a great opportunity playing both LSU and Kentucky away. Tennessee is a ranking first in most shooting categories in the SEC and second only to Kentucky in defense. Kentucky has a huge rebounding and inside game advantage agains’t Tennessee when they had Travis in but now the playing field is now more evened out. Everything I said really leans Tennessee here but the issue for this spread to me is the question how Kentucky going to react being disrespected as a dog. Kentucky is 2-0 as a dog this year and 6-2 ATS as an away team. I have a slight lean to Tennessee here and lean to the over but I may not be a huge player in this matchup.
Lean Tennessee Lean over
Sunday 3/3
Michigan vs Maryland +1 O/U 129
I am really glad that this game is on Sunday and I will be focused on this spread when it comes out. Not a lot of info here since Michigan is playing Nebraska tonight but If they win with fashion as I expect them to do, I will have to look towards the Maryland side of things. This is a revenge spot for the Terrapins and they now have more of an understanding on how Michigan plays ball. Looking at Maryland they are pretty bipolar scoring 78 points per game at home and only 65 on the road. Michigan isn ‘t terrible on the road at 6-5 ATS but they have dropped some big games to Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State. I really do not want to over complicate this one so I am going to make it simple. Michigan just lost their top spot in the big 10 losing at home to Michigan State and will be looking ahead to revenging that in their last Big 10 game of the season. Michigan had their bounce back game against Nebraska so you do not have to worry about that motivation. This is a revenge spot for the Terrapins and this game certainly means more to them than to the Wolverines. I like Maryland up to -2.5 points
Maryland +1
