February 22nd:
Indiana vs Iowa – 7 O/U 147
How poor is this Indiana team? I see them as the Oklahoma of last year that charged through their non-conference schedule only to fail miserably when conference play started. Since January 3rd, this Hoosier team is 3-10 ATS in conference play with only 1 away cover when they surprised Michigan State. Now they have to travel to an Iowa team who has the 3rd best offense in the big 10 coming off of a close loss at home vs Maryland. The best thing that Indiana has going for them is that Iowa has the worst defense in the big 10 so if they try they should be able to put some points up. Nobody has been more bipolar in the big 10 in the splits than the Hoosiers. They average 6 less points per game on the road vs at home and give up 13.5 more points per game on the Road. Iowa is a much better team at home allowing 3 less points and scoring 4 more at 82 points per game. This spread is going to be pretty big seeing that Indiana already lost to this team at home 77-72 at home this year but if you look at Indiana’s situation after losing that close game vs Purdue, one has to wonder where their minds are at. Looking at these splits and the situation, I think Iowa comes back big after their loss to Maryland and puts one on Indiana here. I have this game Iowa 80 – 69
Iowa -7 and lean over
Penn State vs Illinois -2 O/U 141
Penn State has been rejuvenated lately winning 3 of their last 5 big 10 games and putting up 95 points shooting 56 percent against an injured Nebraska team a few days back. Illinois on the other hand has much improved with coach Brad Underwood who has done a fantastic job with these very young kids. The 2 keys to this game is the spot and the home/road splits. When a team that isn’t a good shooting team plays out of their minds I like to fade them. Penn State is in that spot and probably also looking ahead to number 19 Maryland. The Illini is coming off of a good loss at a desperate Wisconsin team when they had the lead a large part of the game and covered the spread. Illinois has been on fire at home averaging 79.9 points per game and 46% from the field when their overall average is only 73.8 and 43% Their defense is also much better allowing only 72.3 points. Penn State on the other hand is equally bipolar only scoring 65.6 points on the road and shooting 40% when their average is 69.3 points per game. If you look in general on Kenpom, Penn State shows the better team but if you look just in conference play, Illinois ranks higher in both Adjusted offense and adjusted defense. I like Illinois here 75-50
Illinois -2
Virginia vs Louisville +5.5 O/U 123
Ever since that Duke collapse, this Louisville team has certainly not been the same only scoring 56 points home to Clemson and then losing at Syracuse only putting up 49 points. Now they will face the best defense that they have seen all year in Virginia and one must wonder if they are going to put up some points. Virginia on the other hand was able to get by North Carolina recently proving to still be among the top 2 teams in the ACC only without having an answer for Duke. Both of these teams rank number 1 and 2 respectively in conference play in defensive efficiency in the ACC. Louisville can be a weird team for sure beating teams like UNC and losing to teams like Pittsburgh but one thing that i have noticed is that they never seem to control the pace of their games yet they can seem to be able to adjust their play to either fast or slow. Looking at the home/road splits, Louisville seems to score about the same home or on the road but they play better defense at home while Virginia is a definitely a better home team then when they are on the road by about a 10 point margin. Virginia has not had a tough road schedule this year minus the Duke game and I think they may be tested against a desperate Cardinals team. I also like the fact that Louisville can hit free throws ranking number 1 in the SEC. This is very important in a low scoring game. I’ll take the points. I have this game 63-62 Virginia winning by 1.
Louisville +5.5
West Virginia vs Baylor – 12 O/U 142
Well here are 2 teams that both recently had some player issues. Baylor lost 3 out of 4 games a few weeks back until getting Makai Mason back and shocking Iowa State at home this Tuesday. West Virginia ever since suspending 2 starters Esa Ahmad and Wesley Harris hasn’t scored over 53 points and lost 4 games in row by blowouts. When healthy I think Baylor is a top 3 Big 12 teams with nice wins against Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Iowa State ranks number 1 in offense in the Big 12 and is getting healthier. I think there is also a good chance that their 3rd best player King McClure comes back whom is also their best 3 point shooter. West Virginia on the other hand ranks almost last in every category in the Big 12 and I think they have cashed their season. I am going to keep fading West Virginia at least until I lose and look at the under
Baylor -12 and lean under
Duke vs Syracuse +5 O/U 145
This is a strange one due to Zion being out, a revenge spot for Duke and the tragic thing that happened to Jim Boeheim killing a man with his car on the highway. I do not think that Duke knows how to play with Zion all that well. Lean Syracuse here because the kids may rally around their coach but wait for news about injuries.
Lean Syracuse +5
Ohio State vs Maryland -7 O/U 130
So this is a road revenge spot here for Ohio State but how can they they be trusted here when they have only won 1 true away game in conference against a bad Indiana team. You are going to see a healthy spread here of 7 or 8 points in favor for Maryland but I am not so sure that I want to lay that kind of number even though Ohio State is only 6-10 ATS after a win. Maryland finally got their big road victory against a ranked Iowa team and this could be a flat spot for them. One thing that I can count on is the fact that both of these team have had some huge defensive performances and both teams play slow and have top 20 defenses in the nation. Ohio State also somehow allows 3 less points per game on the road then they do at home at 62. I think due to these teams recent wins, it may not be a bad idea to check out the under as long as it is over 128 points or so. Ohio State unders in conference are 9-5-1 and Maryland in conference unders are 10-6.
Under 130
