Friday 3/8
Minnesota vs Maryland -7 O/U 138
This looks like 2 tournament teams facing off here at the end of the season. Minnesota is coming off that great win against Purdue while Maryland is coming off of a tough home loss against Michigan. Minnesota is 5-5 ATS on the road while Maryland is 7-9-1 at home. Now the spot definitely says potential let down here for Minnesota but they still probably remain a slight bubble team even after beating Purdue. Minnesota is pretty locked up where they stand in the big 10 tournament which is a second day game but Maryland on the other hand still has a shot at getting a 2 day bye should Wisconsin lose a game. Maryland is on 4 days rest and Minnesota will only be on 2 so as you see the spot favors Maryland. The home road offensive splits show Maryland scoring 11.5 more points per game at home rather than on the road and Minnesota scoring 14.7 points less on the road and at home. Part of this huge disparity is obviously both teams play most easy non conference games at home but these double digits at this point in the year definitely say something. In conference games Maryland ranks top 5 adjusted efficiency on offense and 4th on defense while Minnesota is 6th and 10th respectively. Looking at the match-up Maryland’s biggest weakness is turnovers ranking last in the big 10 in losing the ball and steals. Minnesota doesn’t steal the ball well ranking 13th. Minnesota’s biggest weakness is defending in the paint and rebounding while Maryland has the size to score down low with dual 6’10 guy Bruno Fernando and Jaylen Smith. I like the Terps to cover here and re-establish their position as a top tier big 10 team. I have this Maryland
Maryland -7 and lean under 138
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan +3 O/U 153
Both Tom Kolpien and I like the Central Michigan -3 as long as Montgomery is playing.
Michigan vs Michigan State -4 O/U 131
Well this game certainly became interesting now that Purdue has lost to Minnesota. Michigan State and Michigan with a win here secures at least a portion of the big 10 regular season title. Michigan may get a little extra love here on the spot because it is a revenge game for that loss at home. Michigan is 6-4 ATS on the road but Michigan State is a crazy 11-4 ATS at home. Michigan State will be without Nick Ward and Michigan will be without Charles Matthews and I think these injuries somewhat cancel each other out. Home road splits are not too extravagant for the Wolverines but for Sparty they are are around 17 points. Conference points per game splits has Sparty winning 68 to 67 on a neutral or 70-65 at home. Michigan States offensive and defensive efficiency rank 1st and 3rd in the big 10 while Michigan ranks 4th and 1st. Overall Michigan State has the 4th best offense in the nation and Michigan has the 3rd best defense in the nation. This game will be hard to pick a side here. Michigan did not shoot as well last game and had 10 less free throws. What I am going to look at is the over. It is true that both of these teams play at the slower tempo but being that these teams are among the best in the big 10 you have to add a possession or back in for each team to assume there won’t be much of a garbage time. This game went to 147 a few weeks ago. I have it Michigan State winning 70 – 65
Over 131 and lean Michigan +4
Louisville vs Virginia – 11 O/U 124
Both Tom and I like the under 124
Texas Tech vs Iowa State -1 O/U 137
Texas Tech has been on fire winning their last 8 games in a row, 7-1 ATS in those games and being a modest 4-4 ATS as an away team. Iowa State is definitely in the tournament beating this Tech team back in Mid January and boasting an 8-5-1 at home against the spread record. Looking at the spot, Iowa State could gain back a better seed for winning this game in the NCAA tournament but it won’t help them win the big 12. This is a road revenge game for the Red Raiders and they need this win to secure at least a share of the regular season Big 12 championship so the spot definitely favors Tech here. Home road splits definitely favor the Cyclones but they have lost 2 of their last 3 home games. Texas Tech as been a much better conference team scoring 71 points and allowing only 62 while Iowa State scores 73 and allows 70. Iowa State has the 10th best offense in the nation but only the 3rd best in efficiency in the big 12. Tech’s defense is 1st in the nation and in the big 12. I think their defense prevails and their hunger to win their first regular season big 12 title should prevail. Texas Tech wins 71-69
Texas Tech +1
Syracuse vs Clemson -4 O/U 128
Both of these teams are 19-12 bubble teams who need a big victory. Back in January Syracuse beat Clemson by 8 at home. Syracuse had some bad luck vs Virginia on Monday who shot lights out against them in the Carrier Dome. Clemson has had a nice part of their schedule facing Boston College, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame 3 of their last 4 games while Syracuse had to play Louisville, Duke, North Carolina and Virginia 4 of their last 5 games. Both of these teams are middle of the road ACC teams on paper but for some reason Syracuse score’s 3 more points per game on the road then they do at home. From a match-up standpoint Syracuse has a big advantage in blocks down low and causing turnovers while Clemson has the advantage in over all defensive efficiency and low effective FG%. The key motivation here is that Syracuse needs this game more than Clemson and they will be on more rest. Clemson just played Notre Dame Wednesday and Syracuse has had 4 full days rest to think about needing this W. Syracuse always seems to come through at the end and sneak into the tournament. They like to bounce back big after a loss. I think this game is close and Clemson squeaks out a win on senior night by 65-63.
Syracuse +4 small and ml sprinkle
Purdue vs North Western +7 O/U 133
Purdue coming off of a huge loss vs Minnesota now giving up a chance at a big 10 regular season title unless they win this game. Northwestern finally getting a win after losing 10 in a row against a very injured Ohio State team without their best player in Kaleb Wesson. The Wildcats have the worst offense in the big 10 and 187th in the nation in offensive efficiency and Purdue has the 5th best in the nation at 121.5. The Boilermakers also edge out Northwestern in conference Defense. Motivation vs no motivation!
Purdue -7 may be a max play up to -11
Duke vs North Carolina -7 O/U 167
Road revenge spot for Duke. North Carolina can lock up a share of the ACC regular season here. Everyone knows that Zion Williamson is hurt and people say he is worth 5 points to the line. Well that may be true but I think the the whole Wake Forest game when duke barely beat them by 1 point and Duke’s loss to Virginia Tech will end up giving Duke a ton of line value here. No player to me is worth 5 points when it comes to the pure motivation of the team. We have to remember that Duke still has 2 active top 5 recruits and Cam Reddish. These kids will be hyped up for this game and this spot. We know both of these teams can score points but I think that even with Zion out, coach K will be having them play a little more defense. We know that Duke’s biggest weakness is shooting the 3 and free throws to some extent but where Duke has a chance here is that North Carolina ranks 10th in the conference in defending the 3. I think if Duke can get hot like they have at Syracuse and at Virginia, they should be able to motivated themselves to a cover. I like the Duke +7 but if it opens low like around 3 or 4 I may take the line value with the Tar Heels.
UNC -3 small and Duke +7 larger. Duke is the play at +7
Illinois vs Penn State -7 O/U 145
Tom likes Illinois +7 and I like the Over 145
