Indiana vs Minnesota -3 O/U 135
Ok, have people finally gotten off of the hype train for Indiana? That’s a big NOOOOPE for the reason that they just beat Michigan State on the road in overtime. Due to that terrible performance from State, this line may be inflated a bit. Now the Hoosiers did great in the non conference beating teams at home like Marquette and Louisville but on the road this team has been terrible. Indiana is 2-9 ATS since Christmas and I think this may be a good spot for Minnesota who had a tough run of 4 losses when 3 of them where 3 of them were away games against top 40 opponents. The Gophers just lost to a very desperate Nebraska team and will be looking to bounce back at home. I also love the emergence of Freshman Center Daniel Oturu averaging 11 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. The Gophers are 7-7 ATS at home but 8-6 in conference games. Looking at Kenpom, the Gophers have better in conference numbers than Indiana and the home road splits for these teams are out of this world having the Gophers winng by 7.6 points.
Minnesota -3 BIG all the way up to -5.5
West Virginia vs Kansas -17 O/U 148
What could be worse than being West Virginia right now. Well I suppose you could be Kansas who is a team that had very high aspirations of being in the top 4 only to be sinking down to 16 due to so many of your players out this year for various reasons. This game is really a good spot for Kansas to get some revenge off of a really bad loss against a very bad team but unfortunately the spread will already be factoring in the revenge spot. West Virginia is a terrible road team with 0 road wins. They rank only 98th in offensive efficiency and 140th in defense. The Mountaineers rank dead last in almost every category that matter in Big 12 play. Kansas on the other hand is still at least a top 4 big 12 team who is going to the tournament no matter what happens. The huge thing here to me is that West Virginia just lost 2 key starters in Esa Ahmad and Wesley Harris for the rest of the season for disciplinary reasons. These losses are even worse than what Kansas had to bear and West Virginia will basically be running on fumes. Now I know sometimes when this happens it tends to motivate the younger kids into playing well the very next game but in this situation, Kansas will be looking for revenge and should easily be able to shut down this young team. I know that Kansas has been a huge over team this year at 15-9-1 ATS but in this situation, I do not know that West Virginia will even be able to score enough points to contribute to that. Instead I think that Kansas pulls it together and rolls this team. I like Kansas up to 21 points here.
Kansas -17
Oklahoma vs TCU -4 O/U 142
The Sooners have been an against the spread darling this year at 16-6-3 flying under the radar and cashing many tickets. TCU hasn’t been too shabby either at 13-11. Even with the Sooners great ATS record they still somehow lost the last 5 games in a row. These team met earlier this year in Oklahoma with the Sooners winning 76-74. Can TCU get some home court revenge here? Well the Sooners are 3-0-2 at an away underdog so this might be easier said than done. A glaring thing to me in this game is that both TCU and Oklahoma tend to play better when they pick up the pace. Both teams average about 69 plays per game which is pretty average in the NCAA but you also have to look at the fact that the Big 12 is one of the slowest pace conferences and some of the teams that they have faced has skewed this number down a bit. Teams like Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas. The reality of the fact is that I think both teams would rather play some higher paced basketball like you have seen when both teams played West Virginia and actually each other. Because of this I am going to play the over 142 here and I like it up to 146.
Over 142
Iowa State vs Kansas State -2 O/U 129
Iowa state will be visiting Manhattan Kansas for some road revenge here. The Cyclones are coming off of a nasty loss to TCU at home but this team continues to be ranked high and are tied for 3rd place in the big 12. Kenpom ranks Iowa State as the 15th best team and they rank Kansas State as the 27th best team. Kansas State ranks terrible on Offense at 115th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency on kenpom but as we know that number includes the many games that they Wildcats were without Dean Wade. I think the best thing to handicap this game is too look at the conference performances here. Kansas State has the 5th best offense in the big 12 and the 2nd best defensive efficiency while the Cyclones rank 3rd in both categories. I think these teams are pretty close to equal when looking at those rankings. Both teams have faced pretty similiar schedules. The key to this game for the WIldcats is if they can once again stop Marial Shayok from scoring deep into the double digits and looking at their defense I think that they can and will. I love being on a first place team that isn’t used to being there and is embracing their position with max effort each game. K state is 8-1 ATS their last 9 games. I like K state all the way to 4.5
Kansas State -2
Tennessee vs Kentucky -3 O/U 146
Well this game really set up well for Kentucky. They are coming off a very tough last second loss off of a very controversial non-call of offensive goal tending on LSU that for some god awful reason is not reviewable. That and the extra day of rest should give them extra motivation and ability to try and put one on Tennessee at home. Well this is easier said than done and I have seen these situations before. Even with supreme motivation, Kentucky will not be facing their toughest opponent since Duke. Now I think that there may not be a better team in the paint then the Wildcats. This team is top 3 in the nation in rebounding, top 18 in offense and top 9 in defense but they happen to lack 3 things that Tennessee has to win this game. Kentucky does not defend the 3 well only ranking 234th in the nation while Tennessee shoots the three the second best percentage in the SEC. The Wildcats tend to turn the ball over only ranking 159th in turnover percentage while the Vols ranks 26th. Finally and most importantly, Tennessee is much more experienced with upper classman like Senior Admiral Schofield, Junior Grant Williams and Junior Jordan Bone who have all been in these big spots before. Tennessee is second in Field Goal percentage in the nation at 51.3% and are an amazing 50.8% on the road. Actually for some reason Tennessee is statistically better on the road than at home on offense averaging 87 points per game on the road while Kentucky as usual better at home on defense allowing 61 points per game. The thing that makes me nervous about the Tennessee side is that they have not faced a top 30 team since beat Gonzaga on December 9th! Kentucky has faced 7 top 30 teams since then and only lost to LSU. What is crazy to me is that Tennessee allows only 63 points per game at home but they also allow a whopping 77 points per game on the road. The Cats are 7-7 ATS this year at home while the Vols are an amazing 5-1 ATS on the road. I think that the only way that I can look at this game is the over if it is less than 148
Over 146 and lean Tennessee +3
