Texas Tech vs Virginia -1.5 O/U 117.5
And then there were 2. Two of the best defenses in College Basketball that is! This has definitely been a different kind of tournament this year. The way that these games have been played has had the officials swallow their whistles for the most part. I do not remember ever seeing it like this and it has made the under continue to be red hot going 2-0 on Saturday. Now this is the lowest championship game total that I can remember at 117 points. Texas Tech ranks first in the league on defense on Kenpom and Virginia ranks 5th. Slight edge to Texas Tech. Virginia ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency at adjusted 1.226 points per possession while Texas Tech ranks 28th at 1.137 points per possession. You would think the edge goes to Virginia here right? The caveat is that Texas Tech has been on fire the last few months and has been the second best team in offensive efficiency since February 3rd at 1.26 points per possession on Bart Torvik. Due to this I have to give this category a push. Both teams obviously play slow with Virginia at 59.3 possessions per game and Tech at 66.5. If you look at the injury report, Virginia is quite healthy but Tariq Owens left last game for Tech with a rolled ankle that looked gruesome. Somehow only a few minutes later, Owens was able to come back on the court after he taped it up and he didn’t miss a beat. I think he will be playing this game being only probable. The Key matchup to me is the guard play. Ty Jerome vs Matt Mooney and Jarret Culver vs Kyle Guy. Virginia’s guards shoot the 3s better but Texas Tech’s Guards play the better defense. Both teams rank top 10 against the 3. This is going to be an amazing match-up but I think the one key factor in this game is that Texas Tech is a bit more rough around the edges than Virginia. Both teams can get in your face but as you saw vs Sparty, Tech’s defense swallowed them up at the perimeter taking our Cassius Winston and shutting down Matt Mcquaid. If the officials decide to swallow their whistles again, the edge goes to the Red Raiders. I think Virginia has been very fortunate vs Purdue and Auburn to advance this far but this is the time that their luck runs out vs an even more aggressive team. The play is Texas Tech half on the spread and half on the ML. I have this game Texas Tech 63-59.
Texas Tech +1 and ML – Lean Over
