What I look for when betting tournament teams:
Great defense because it travels.
Shooting percentage away from home.
ATS away from home.
Did you finish the season well? Is the team hot or not? Is there a reason why you are not and you have value?
More value on Bubble teams to win (not necessarily against the spread) .
Teams with great NBA type players.
The Big East
To me the Big east is the most up in the air conference. Marquette and Nova are the only for sure teams in the NCAA tournament while Seton Hall and Creighton might have some slight work to do. The problem with Marquette and Nova is that they have really come down to earth and have had a terrible finish to their season losing most of their games the last 3 week. Looking at the odds, I think this may be the most wide open tournament as far as what could happen. Due to the even teams, I think the value is on the Hottest team with the best odds which is Xavier at+ 900 or 9-1. Now you can argue that a money line rollover is better than 9-1 but that is ONLY if they play both Nova and Marquette on the bottom. At that case a money line rollover is worth about 15-1. If Nova loses to Providence or Butler than the ML rollover is worth a MAX 9-1 if they play Marquette at the championship level and even less if not. Another option that I may employ is doing a Money Line rollover for Marquette on the bottom while playing Xavier 9-1 on top.
Xavier 9-1 and Marquette ML rollover
The American Athletic Conference
Houston is going to win this but definitely not worth the +125. The team that I really do not like is Cincinnati at +250. They have not finished well and are in the big dance anyways. If you want to get cute, you could also bet Temple at +725 or Wichita State at +1700 being that they won’t have to play Houston until that final game but if you do this you may have to go harder on the ML rollover with Houston. I would favor the Wichita State line personally, but they have a tough road.
Houston ML rollover and small on Wichita State
ACC Tournament
Not enough info here for me. North Carolina is probably my favorite team here but certainly not at +350. If Zion is in they will be dogs against Duke and also against Virginia at the end meaning you could get more like an 9.5-1 value on the ML rollover and if Zion is out and Duke is more of a pickem game then you can still get about 5-1 worst case. Duke is now also without Marquis Bolden so there is now even more problems there. Bolden was their Center and very important to stop the inside game. Not a ton of room to hedge that +350 either against Virginia. Virginia +125 makes no sense when Duke is still the favorite to win the NCAA championship? What does that tell you? Does duke not care about the ACC tournament? Do the odds makers think the officials will favor Duke again like in 2015? Who knows but the only potential play is UNC ML rollover or pass.
UNC ML Rollover
The Pac 12 Tournament
Here is a league that has been a huge disappointment in basketball and really all major sports the last few years. The odds to win this ugly ass tournament are absolutely terrible. You have the conference’s top team in Washington that everyone had penciled in as an at large a few weeks back is now a bubble team with no guarantees of tournament birth. The Pac 12 may only have 1 team in the big dance!!! The motivation should be high for all teams here but the odds do not match up. Colorado may be the hottest team but they are only a 5 seed meaning they have to start on Wednesday. The Buffalos are also in the same side of the bracket as Washington and they only have 6-1 odds to win it all. Garbage. The second hottest team is Oregon winning their last 4 games in a row and even though they are away from Washington in this bracket, they still only have +300 or 3-1 to win this thing and they also start on Wednesday. The only semblance of value that I can find is Utah being at 12-1 here because the are the 4 seed who would start Thursday and they finished off the season well at home. Utah also has the best away ATS record at 7-4 but can you really trust this team who has the worst D in the pac 12? The problem is that they will not be favored in any of their games so they could get 15-1 or 18-1 on a ML rollover. This tournament looks ugly to me and I think if you want to do anything, it would be Washington ML rollover or nothing. Maybe the fact that Washington is now a bubble team could help motivate them.
Washington ML rollover and maybe a smaller ML rollover on Utah with a spread bet to cover it.
The Big 12 Tournament
Ok, so this conference is an absolute mess. You have a clear favorite in Texas Tech at +130. I agree with the fact that they should be favorites but I do not agree with the line. Kansas State is next at +350 but how confident can you be with that number? The big problem with the Big 12 is that you have 4 bubble teams that need these wins much more than the 2 favorites. Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor and Texas all need runs here which makes them very dangerous. We also have to look at the best offense in this division in Iowa state as only a 5 seed because they have a decent shot at winning it. The biggest question to me is if Kansas is going to show up? Will not winning the regular season for the first time in 14 years motivate this team? I think there is way to many unpredictable outcomes here and the best thing to do is stay away. Maybe bet the bubble teams and or Kansas.
Stay Away
The SEC Tournament
It’s pretty crazy seeing everything that happened to LSU with Will Wade being suspended indefinitely. They are the top seed in this tournament and have by far the easiest bracket. It is also weird seeing South Carolina getting the 4 seed and the double bye over Auburn. I do not think even with coach Franks that the gamecocks can make it past this Auburn team without AJ Lawson. The bottom of this bracket is absolutely brutal with Mississippi State, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky. You have 2 of the best teams there with the 5th best in Miss State and probably the 7th best team with Ole Miss. The top of the bracket you have coach-less LSU who is the 3rd best team, Auburn who is the 4th best and I would say Florida is the 6th best and that is where you may find some value. Don’t get me wrong because I think Kentucky wins this thing as long as Reid Travis is playing but Florida definitely has the easiest rout with the best odds. Florida is 15-1 to win this thing but you can get up to 28-1 as long as they Play LSU after Arkansas (which they would have to play anyways) Auburn instead of SC, and Kentucky or Tennessee in the finals. Florida has the best away ATS in the SEC and they have already beaten LSU on the road. I am not crazy about betting this bracket but I would definitely like a ML rollover on Florida and possibly Kentucky and hope that they meet in the Finals.
ML Rollover on Florida small and large on Kentucky if Travis is back. If Travis not back then Tennessee isn’t the worst ML rollover play due to their high away shooting percentage.
The Atlantic 10 Tournament
So this division is interesting because VCU is for sure in due to their Texas and Temple non-conference wins. Whenever a smaller conference has an at-large that is in for sure, I love to look at the other teams fighting their asses off for tournament birth plus you will not get much value for VCU at-140 . The next obvious one to me is the 2nd seed Davidson at +400. Now it is either going to be them or Dayton at +375 to make the championship game. Dayton beat Davidson this year at their house but Davidson has the better conference record. Dayton has had the overall harder schedule and is ranked higher on Kenpom so that is why you see their odds a little bit better to win, but I like that Davidson is taller than Dayton and their coach Bob McKillop has more experience here. The other play that I have is a longer shot on the top of the bracket in Rhode Island. I like the fact that they beat VCU already once this year and love how they finished their season winning their last 4 games. I also love their point guard Jeff Dowtin and I think he has the capability of taking over games. Rhode Island can also choke and lose to some bad teams but I really like the fact that VCU has less to play for here and if Rhode Island wins that game, then they play a St Bonaventure team that they had already beaten once this year. 30-1 odds looks pretty tasty to me.
Rhode Island 30-1 and Davidson 4-1
The Big 10 Tournament
Well this is a very interesting bracket this year. There is a definite separation between the best 2 teams over the rest but I also think that there are 2 or 3 teams here that can beat anyone when on or lose to anybody when off. Those teams are Wisconsin, Iowa and Indiana. Indiana at 60-1 and Iowa at 60 to 1 definitely have the most value in this bracket at those huge numbers. If I was going to make a case for Indiana, I can easily say they are on the same side as Michigan State whom they defeated twice and Wisconsin whom they only played once and defeated at home in overtime. The problem with me on this is that I think that Indiana happened to play State and Sconnie when they were at their coldest while Indiana was pretty much playing for their lives. I think you are counting your blessings if you think Izzo will lose to a team like Indiana 3 times in a row. Having said that I really do not have a problem with you betting those huge 60-1 odds for the reasons that I previously stated as well as the fact that Indiana is definitely the hottest team in the big 10. Iowa on the other hand at 60-1 is on the harder side of the bracket being that they would have to beat number 3 Michigan and number 2 Purdue in order to just get to the championship game but what I like about Iowa is that they have the 3rd best offense in the big 10 and have proven that they can hit clutch shots with Bohannon. I also like the fact that they beat Michigan once this year and the Wolverines are a little injured with Matthews being questionable. Now if Minnesota can play anything like they did at home vs Purdue a week ago, then there is a small shot that Iowas road can get a little easier and then you can most likely hedge after the Michigan game. To be completely honest this scenario is still kind of a long shot so I think that taking a money line rollover with Wisconsin or Michigan State at the top of the bracket for twice the money that you put on Iowa would make some sense to help hedge out of that one. I am personally going to pick of course play Wisconsin because you can make more money with it should they beat Maryland and Michigan State. I also don’t have a problem playing on the 4th best defense in all of the nation on Kenpom and the 1st best defense in the big 10. I also know that Wisconsin last year played State very tough and they may be able to finally get one past them. I do not have a problem if you play State instead but I am looking for upside and bang for my buck and who knows, maybe Michigan State does drop that first game to the Hoosiers. 😊
Iowa 60-1 (or Indiana 60-1)
Wisconsin ML Rollover (or Michigan State)
The MAC Tournament
How is Buffalo only -150 when Gonzaga is -850. The separation between them and the second best team in Toledo is larger than Gonzaga to St Marys. Either way I still think it is better to do a ML rollover on Buffalo here and take it all the way home.
Buffalo ML rollover
