February 8th
Kent State vs Akron -4 O/U 134
Kent state is 4-3-1 ATS away and Akron is 3-6 ATS at home. Both of these teams are very middle of the road with Kent State playing faster and the better offense with Akron the slower team with the better defense. Who controls the pace of this game is my big question? Kent State only shoots 40.6% on the road but the Zips only shoot a tad over 43% at home. Akron is coming off of a terrible shooting performance at only 28% field goal percentage so this is a small system play for me but not too confident.
Akron -4 small and lean under 134
Lets go to the MAAC. I think that you may really like this game Kyle!
Siena vs Manhattan+1 O/U 113 One of the lowest totals of the year
Manhattan ranks 341st in adjusted tempo on Kenpom while Siena ranks 352 out of 353 teams. The only slower team is Virginia. Siena is 8-3 ATS as an away team and Manhattan is 5-5 ATS at home this year. Manhattan has been terrible this year but somehow won their last 3 games at home. The Jaspers already lost at Siena this year 50-43 so revenge may be on their minds. Manhattan has even played slower in conference by 1 possession per game and almost a second more for average possession length. I have this game Sienna 56 – 55 and will probably bet the under.
Under 113 small
February 10th
Wisconsin vs Michigan -5 O/U 121
Well I have already Capped this game in Wisconsin and was successful when the Badgers handed the Wolverines their first loss of the season. Wisconsin is a good road team at 6-3 ATS on the road while Michigan is 6-8 at home. You have to see that this is a huge revenge spot for Michigan because they remember well that first loss and terrible shooting percentage that they had against Wisconsin. From a metrics standpoint Wisconsin’s pack line defense matches up well against the Wolverines because they are a dribble drive type team but they do not shoot the ball well at only 35% from 3. Ethan Happ is a mismatch for Jon Teske or pretty much anyone who plays him. My question is how motivated will Wisconsin be? They just beat their rival Minnesota and got revenge, they already beat Michigan once and have to now face them on the road. They have a wounded Michigan State team on deck at home. This is kind of a sandwich spot. I think that defense travels and you will see Wisconsin give Michigan some fits but I am really not willing to jump on side here. The easiest way to beat Wisconsin is to get Happ in foul trouble and on the road that is very likely to happen against one of the best coaches in Jon Bieline. I however do like the under in this game down to about 116 because Wisconsin’s defense should travel.
Wisconsin under 121
Kentucky vs Mississippi State +2 O/U 142
Kentucky is 5-1 ATS on the road and 13-9 overall. My theory on this is because of that meaningless Duke game they played and got blown out. There still may be some value because of this. Mississippi State is 8-10 ATS overall and 6-6 at home. Kentucky is 7-0 ATS their last 7 games and it is because of how Reid Travis and PJ Washington are such a force inside the paint. The only way to beat Kentucky in my opinion is by being able to hit the 3 at a consistent basis. Mississippi state ranks 60th in three point percentage which isn’t nearly enough. They are also coming off of an overtime game against LSU where they had the lead and choked it away just on Wednesday. I do not see how they can bounce back from that and I love Kentucky all the way to -5.
Kentucky -2 BIG all the way to -5
Washington vs ASU +2 O/U 139
Arizona State is 7-5 ATS at home while Washington is a wonderful 5-1 ATS away. The Huskies haven’t even lost a Pac 12 game yet this year. The Huskies are great and have been flying under the radar but I also think that Arizona State is clearly the second best team to me in the Pac 12. Being that Washington beat Arizona and ASU lost to WASU on thursday, I see a bounce back spot for the Sun Devils. I like a small play on the home dog here but just a lean at Pickem. I will most likely be playing the UNDER 139 on the short rest
ASU +2 small – Under 139
Duke vs Virginia -5 O/U 135
How can you not love this game. Offense vs Defense. Slow vs Fast. I have seen these spots before and Duke always seems to show up big. Probably will take the dog if over 3 points here. Duke Ranks 4th in the nation in adjusted offense and adjusted defense. Virginia ranks a whopping (for them) 5th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense. Key for me is Ty Jerome’s injury for Virginia. If he is out then I like this game down to a Pick-em for Duke. If he is in then I like this line down to + 2.5 for Duke. These kind of games really end up close not only cause these teams are both great but because the officiating seems to always favor the team that is currently losing Duke is the truth this year and it always seems to go right for this team.
Duke +5 big
