This is the second of two articles on the first round of the NCAA Tourney’s East Bracket, which will play out all day Saturday. Check out part I here. I was 6-2 yesterday in March Madness free picks here at TheOddsBreakers — let’s keep WINNING!
Alabama -16 (-115), 1.5 units: The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Iona Gaels are primed and ready for the late-games on Saturday for the East Bracket of the NCAA Tournament. Both enter this contest winners of 6 straight and the champions of their respective conferences. Most of us think of the Crimson Tide as strictly juggernauts on Saturdays in the Fall, but their basketball team is no slouch, either. This is the 22nd NCAA Tournament appearance for Bama and they’re hungry for their first ever national title. Second-year coach Nate Oats has brought flare and a high-octane offensive scheme to the school’s program. Four Crimson Tide players score in the double digits, the team averages 80 ppg, and they thrive as one of the fastest tempo-teams in the country, capitalizing often from quick points off breakaway steals (they rank #5 nationally on Haslametrics in this category). But people forget how good Bama is on defense, too. Menacing against the three ball and ranked #2 overall on KenPom in adjusted defense, the Crimson Tide ranks in the top-50 in three of our four primary defensive field goal categories (on Haslametrics). The boys are buzzin’ in Tuscaloosa and hoping this is the year they win it all. But can Iona shock the world and become the next bracket-busting Oral Roberts? Probably not. As much respect as we have for Rick Pitino, who recently said that his stint at Iona will be his last coaching gig (so he’s there to stay), the Gaels are not in the same stratosphere as Alabama. Ranked #184 on KenPom and #178 on Haslametrics, Iona relies on their defense to overcome their foes in the MAAC. They were extremely effective in their conference tournament, allowing only 53.8 ppg. As impressive as that is, this is a huge step up in class on Saturday for the Gaels. The one game worth noting where Iona faced a non-conference opponent this year? Seton Hall– and the Gaels were blown out by 22 points. It’s Pitino’s first year in the program and Iona has dealt with a ton of adversity this year, including a long COVID layoff smack-dab in the middle of the season. It’s reasonable to assume that they’re already happy with their accomplishments. Bama is not. Alabama has all the drive and motivation to show up big in their first tournament game. My money will go on the Crimson Tide to out-perform and overwhelm the respectable Gaels.
MD/UConn under 130 (-110), 2 units: This is a really interesting game. The unpredictable and full-of-potential Maryland Terps made it to the NCAA Tournament thanks to many impressive Big 10 wins throughout the season. UConn, nearly the Big East champions, also earned a right to the tournament due to great in-season play and wins without their star James Bouknight. With Bouknight getting a full week of rest after some cramping issues in the conference tourney, he should be refreshed and ready to roll Saturday. The sophomore guard has elite athleticism and shooting ability, not to mention natural confidence and leadership intangibles. in his most recent outing, where he still scored 14 points and snagged 8 rebounds, Bouknight said he played his worst game ever. The future NBA guard isn’t easily satisfied and the Huskies run off the same energy. Throughout January and into February the Huskies played without Bouknight and showed some real grit and toughness, edging out Big East rivals like Xavier, Providence, and Seton Hall. Haslametrics ranks UConn as one of the best teams in the country with the 18th best offense, 15th best defense (9th overall). They’re also relentless at the rim. Ranked #5 in the nation on Haslametrics in point-potential from offensive rebounds, the Huskies are more than apt at securing missed shots and capitalizing on opportunities. But the Terps won’t be afraid of Bouknight or UConn’s abilities in the front court. After all, Maryland plays in the most frightening conference in the country, where big boys like Luka Garza, Kofi Cockburn and Hunter Dickinson prowl and dominate at the rim. Led by Baltimore’s Darryl Morsell, the Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year, the Terps are ranked #1 in preventing mid-range shots and #2 in stifling near proximity opportunities on Haslametrics. Only allowing 65 ppg and flexing their defense in games this year in wins against teams like Michigan State, Rutgers and Purdue (all teams which that probably have similar offensive talent to the Huskies), Maryland will be prove testy at the rim and I think highly competitive throughout this contest. Because of the prowess of both defenses and the nerves of postseason play, I like this game to fly under. I’d lean UConn -3.
Lean, UCLA +4 (-110): It’s not easy being BYU. The Cougars are an elite team in the NCAA’s West Coach Conference. The only problem? Gonzaga is in there, too. It’s hard to get a grasp on how good of a team BYU is. They win and usually beat up on inferior conference opponents but they always get hammered down and humbled by the Bulldogs. That has to be frustrating. They didn’t face anyone of real value to note in non-conference play, either, so we’re left with their 18-9 above-average record to evaluate. KenPom ranks BYU as a very solid all around team– 27th in adjusted offense and 26th in adjusted defense. Haslametrics ranks the Cougars even higher on defense in several noteworthy categories such as FG percentage allowed (7th), potential quick points from offensive rebounds (3rd), and near-proximity FG percentage (1st). That’s all very impressive, but I worry that UCLA matches up really well against the 6th seed. UCLA is particularly skilled in their mid-range game. Ranking 18th on KenPom and 29th overall in adjusted offense on Haslametrics, the Bruins are top 20 in all mid-range shooting categories (FG percentage, percentage of shots, and attempts vs the average opponent). Running a slow-paced, methodical offense, UCLA has thrives in taking care of the basketball. Ranked 46th in Division 1 basketball in turnovers committed per game (AthlonSports), the Bruins can be an annoying unit to face for 40 minutes. We saw that plain as day in their First Four matchup against the Spartans. Michigan State led by as many as 14 points in that game, but the Bruins kept chipping and chipping away. By committing less fouls and turnovers and with high percentage shooting, UCLA out-lasted Michigan State and earned their way into the tournament. I’m not sure just how good BYU is and a smart team with good shooting like UCLA could be a problem Saturday. Only a lean for me, but I’d go Bruins.
Texas -8.5 (-110), 1 unit: Look out, the Texas Longhorns are surging at the right time. Winners of now 6 in a row and a Big 12 title to show for it, Texas is a very formidable tournament team who presents one of the more well-balanced units in the country. Entering March Madness at 24th overall on KenPom and 25th overall on Haslametrics, it’s hard to find a real flaw in the Longhorns. Okay, they’re not the BEST in their mid-range game (coincidentally they’re not great at mid-range defense either). They allow too many 3 pointers and foul a little too often, too. Fine. But overall, Texas is an extremely effective team on both ends of the floor when they play up to their potential. Edging out Big-12 titans like Oklahoma State and West Virginia and Texas Tech in the regular season is no easy feat, but that’s exactly what they did. One has to assume Texas is entering the tourney with a little chip on their collective shoulders, too. The Longhorns have lost their last four tournament games. Time for a little redemption. Led by guard Andrew Jones, who averages nearly 14.9 ppg and shoots 42% from the field and 80% from the FT line, the Longhorns have a knack for driving on their opponents and stacking up points from the charity stripe. They’re top 4 scorers are hitting at least 70.8% from the line– not a good outlook for an Abilene-Christian team who ranks near the bottom of the nation in free throw attempts allowed (Haslametrics). Abilene-Christian does a fantastic job at preventing shots from the field, however, ranked #2 in the nation on Haslametrics in that category. The Wildcats rely on their defense to beat opponents in the Southland Conference, something they showcased in their 79-45 beat-down of Nicholls in the title game. The Wildcats also have a decent offense with 3 players who average in the double-digits. In their non-conference play, Abilene-Christian hung with Texas Tech in a close defeat. I’m actually pretty impressed by that. The Wildcats are, by no means, a team to sleep on. That being said, Texas has too much steam and too much overall talent to be dethroned on Saturday. This is a one unit play out of respect for Abilene-Christian’s consistency in the Southland Conference and as the 32nd ranked overall defense on KenPom, but I think Texas covers by double digits. Hook em horns!
