THE MADNESS CONTINUES TODAY!! Yesterday, I wrote about the 6 games from the East, which included an premium play on Akron and leans on Murray State and St Peters. I was not shocked to see the Peacocks cover last night but I did not think they could win OUTRIGHT like they did! haha. This is March!! Gotta love it!!
Anyway, I have breakdowns for the 2 Friday games from the East quadrant and a lean for each game below. Good luck today and this weekend!!
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Texas/Virginia Tech
This will be a VERY slow paced game with these squads ranking 333rd and 343th in tempo. The Hokies are riding high after winning the ACC Tournament title and enter with a +11.7 point differential in their last 3 games while Texas comes in on a bit of a limp with a -6.3 point differential in their last 3. On the season, the Longhorns are 2-7 ATS with 4+ days off and are 10-13 ATS as a favorite. Virginia Tech scores the 31st most points in the nation with the 3-point line while shooting 39.3% from deep (3rd best in the nation). Texas is going to have to make to the Hokies drive the ball, especially if they are shooting around their season average. The Longhorns weakness on defense is guarding the perimeter and are much better inside the arc, ranking 37th in the nation in defending the 2-point shot. Additionally, Texas will look to turn their defense into offense (as they’ve done all year), ranking 13th in turnover% and 62nd in the nation in potential quick points off breakaway steals. I lean to the hotter team here, VA Tech ML +105.
Purdue/Yale
The Boilermakers enter this game as one of the worst teams away from home this season, ranking 330th in that stat and owning the 300th ranking in consistency and 343rd in momentum…yikes! Purdue is also just 12-20-1 ATS this season as a favorite and 5-8-1 ATS as a favorite of 12.5 points or more. Saying that, Purdue will have the clear edge on offense as they are 4th in the nation in eFG% and 13th in offensive rebounding% which contributes to their #1 ranking in the nation in 2nd chance point conversion%. Purdue will absolutely dominate inside the arc, where they shoot 55.9% and rank 13th in the nation in 2-point% and will have the luxury of going up against the Yale defense who ranks 233rd in defending the 2-point shot (keep in mind they play in the Ivy League). Purdue is not an elite defense by any stretch but matchup well against Yale and will be able to neutralize their streghths while dominating the boards. Don’t love it, but lean Purdue -16.
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