THE MADNESS IS HERE!! And it started officially with the Notre Dame/Rutgers double OT game!! I was very fortunate to be on the ND side and we are now 16-6 (72%) in out last 22 plays!
I have breakdowns for every Thursday game from the East quadrant and a lean for each game below. Good luck with your picks and brackets!!
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Baylor/Norfolk St
Norfolk St enters with a 5-1 ATS record at a neutral court and 4-2 ATS as a dog while Baylor is 6-3 ATS as an away favorite. Norfolk is one of the most experienced teams in the nation (33rd) and they score most of their points inside the arc which is the weakness of Baylor’s defense. Norfolk St also gets to the line a bunch, ranking 9th in the nation in FTA/FGA, so they will look to get the Bears into foul trouble. Saying that, Baylor has a clear rebounding advantage with their size and will be a problem on defense with their 16th best turnover percentage, as they will take advantage of quick points off steals. There is a way for Norfolk St to stay within this number, their defense. They rank 16th in eFG% and play excellent defense. Lean Norfolk St +21.5
North Carolina/Marquette
These are 2 very inconsistent teams. Marquette has been great in the beginning of the season and North Carolina improved later in the season but still has been inconsistent. Marquette comes in with a -4.7 point differential in their last 3 games while UNC owns a +6.7 differential. Marquette is 8-4 ATS vs ranked teams this season and UNC is 2-4 ATS. Marquette is also 11-5 ATS as a dog this season. There is a HUGE rebounding advantage for NC as they rank 13th in the nation and will take advantage of 2nd chance points. Marquette scores the 87th most amount of points from 3 and they will have an advantage there and will have the luxury of going up against the Tar Heels 255th ranking against the 3-point shot. Marquette is also VERY young, ranking 349th in experience but do have the advantage in depth and they will also have the advantage on defensive blocks and steals. My advice on this one….PASS!
St Marys/Indiana
Indiana comes in with a +2.3 point differential in their last 3 games, including their win against Wyoming in the play-in game. This will be a slow paced game with Indiana ranking 201st in tempo an St Mary’s ranking 344th. These are 2 of the best defenses in the nation with St Mary’s ranking 9th in adjusted efficiency and Indiana is 18th. The Hoosiers score most of their points inside the arc but they will be going against the strength of the St Mary’s defense. At the other end of the court, St Mary’s also scores most of their points inside, but guess what? That is where Indiana thrives on defense, ranking 9th against the 2-point shot. Neither team is very good at second chance points either, so points will be at a premium in this one. I lean Under 126.5
UCLA/Akron
Akron enters 9-2 ATS as a dog and 7-1 ATS with 4+ days off while UCLA is 6-5 ATS as a road favorite. The Bruins will have the edge in height, experience and depth. Akron comes in scoring a good majority of their points from beyond the arc and rank 74th in the nation by shooting 35.6% and may be able to hang with the Bruins as long as they can shoot a good percentage from deep. UCLA will have the edge at the free throw line but score most of their points inside the arc and that’s where the Zips defensive strength lies. There is a chance for Akron to keep this one tighter than the spread. lean Akron +14
Murray St/San Francisco
San Fran is a good team away from home, ranking 35th in the nation and are a very experienced team (78th in the country). SF shoots a lot of 3s and scores a good amount of their points from beyond the arc by Murray St defends the 3 even better (24th in the nation). This should be a fairly even matchup on the boards but Murray St should have the edge in turnovers (41st in TO%). If this comes down to the wire, there is no advantage from either team as they both shoot under 70% from the line. Lean Murray St -2
Kentucky/St Peters
St Peters comes in with a 10-4 ATS as a road team and are 3-0 ATS at a neutral court while Kentucky is 12-14 as a favorite. St Peters is also 8-3 ATS as a dog and 6-2 ATS with 4+ days off. St Peters is a good team away from home and ranks 7th in the nation in momentum. The Peacocks have a very deep bench as 40% of their minutes come from the bench which is 16th most in the country. Kentucky should have their way with the St Peters offense, however, they should struggle with the 34th best team in adjusted defensive efficiency and the 6th best in eFG%. Kentucky scores 61.1% of their points inside the arc which is where St Peters thrives on defense, ranking 11th in the nation against the 2-point shot. St Peters is also 13th in block% and 63rd in steal%. Lean St Peters +17.5
