I’ll be covering the East and Midwest bracket games starting this Friday in the 2021 NCAAM’s Tournament. First, the Midwest (part 1). Let’s dive in!
Drexel/Illinois over 144.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Lean, Drexel +23 (-110): How about them Drexel Dragons? Drexel has earned its first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 1996, although they can’t be overly excited about who they drew in the first round. Illinois may be the hottest and most popular team entering the postseason (not called Gonzaga). The Illini are the Big 10 champions, have now won 7 in a row, and they’ve won 14 out of their last 15 games. They’re also stacked with talent, sporting two finalists for the Wooden Award in center Kofi Cockburn and guard Ayo Dosunmu, a combo which averages nearly 40 ppg. Cockburn is a challenge for any team but he may be a particularly daunting task for Drexel’s James Butler. The Dragons’ center stands at only 6’8″ and he’s not an imposing Lebron-like 6’8″ either. On the season, Drexel’s front court has allowed 55.3% of their opponents’ points from inside the arc, yikes. They’re among the worst 40 in the nation in that category. Maybe more unbelievably, they’ve mustered only 45 blocks all season. To say that Kofi Cockburn will eat in this contest feels like a huge understatement. Still, Drexel has to feel like they’re playing with house money. They’re effective on offense and somehow they’ve been shooting over 50% from beyond the arc since February 1; that’s an incredible stat. I think it’s likely that Drexel will come out shooting at will and without hesitation, because well, why not? But I can only lean their side. If Illinois plays poised and motivated, which isn’t a guarantee after their big conference tournament performance, then they should be able to cover. If Illinois’ guards Adam Miller and Trent Frazier are sinking jump shots (on top of Cockburn’s inevitable front court dominance), the Illini could win by 50. The Illinois defense has looked better and better but the Dragons know they need to come out firing to have a chance. I’ll take a shot on the over.
Loyola Chicago -2.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Loyola-Chicago draws the 8 seed and a matchup against surging Georgia Tech in what I think is the most interesting first game in the Midwest bracket. KenPom ranks the Ramblers as the #1 adjusted defense (KenPom) in the nation to end the season, but they’ll get tested on Friday. Georgia Tech brings a talented roster and an offense that’s scoring 77 ppg during their 8 game winning streak en-route to an ACC Championship win. They also have the ACC player of the year in Moses Wright. He’ll be a great matchup to watch against Cameron Krutwig. Krutwig, the star forward/center for Loyola-Chicago, plays with a Nikola Jokic-like presence. He sees the floor brilliantly, he’s a fantastic passer, and he knows how to use his big frame to score easy buckets. In his four years playing for the Ramblers, he averaged 59% from the field- that’s pretty wild. Moses Wright is sort of the anti-Krutwig. He’s big, agile, athletic, and explosive. It’ll be interesting to see who gains the edge. Georgia Tech also has 3 other players who average over 10 ppg, but their guards will have to deal with the Ramblers’ guard Lucas Williamson, arguably one of the best defenders in the country. Can you already see why I think this game is so intriguing? For me, it all boils down to the spot. Georgia Tech is coming off one of the hottest streaks in their history. They’re a media darling (Josh Pastner only amplified that by 100 in that post-game interview after Saturday’s win- that’s one happy human) and they’re playing well on both ends of the floor. But I see it as a let-down spot. Loyola-Chicago may not get the recognition they deserve but they’re the #9 ranked team on KenPom and #18 on Haslametrics (with a 5th ranked adjusted defense on Haslametrics, too). They’re a disciplined, complete team that doesn’t foul and severely limits their opponents’ output. While the Yellow Jackets enter the tournament feelin’ fat and sassy, the Ramblers must feel disrespected. As much as Georgia Tech has impressed me, I’ll take Loyola-Chicago to prove their legitimacy and cover in the first round. They’re the favorite here for a reason.
Oregon State/Tennessee under 131 (-110), 1 unit: I probably like this game the least out of any game I’ve looked at in the Midwest bracket. Neither team really impresses me. Tennessee is too up and down in the SEC and the Beavers are just as tough to predict. Oregon State has hung with big dogs in the Pac-12 and had an impressive streak en-route to the Pac-12 title, but it is the Pac-12… Colorado and Oregon don’t exactly jump out as real contenders to me. One interesting stat that pops out is Oregon State’s strength of schedule. The Beavers have faced the 80th best adjusted defenses in the country. The Volunteers, who have gone toe to toe against elite SEC offenses like Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU, are ranked #4 in adjusted defense on KenPom. Of course they didn’t fare too well against the SEC’s premiere teams, but the Volunteers’ defense should be a major uptick in class for Oregon State. USC is probably the best defense the Beavers have faced, but I’m not sure how much weight they really carry in the Pac-12. Both of these teams run at a slow tempo, and it’s worth noting that there are 45 better offenses (according to KenPom) better than Tennessee in the NCAA tournament — that could hurt them here. Then again, Oregon State is almost just as pedestrian- they’ll have 43 offenses that are ranked higher than them in the tournament. This feels like a defensive game for all these reasons, so I’ll take a small shot on the under here. That’s about all I could muster for this contest.
Liberty +9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Liberty is an all around solid team– they have good shooters (39.2% from beyond the arc), they have experienced leaders, they’re well-coached, and they’re talented on defense, ranked 3rd in the nation in points allowed per game. The Flames have also won 12 in a row. There’s only one problem: the 13th seeded Flames have to face a red-hot Oklahoma State team to start the tournament. Maybe “red-hot” is an overstatement since they lost the Big-12 final against Texas, but Texas is really surging as well. Before that loss, the Cowboys won 8 of their last 9 games. The only game they lost in that span was against Baylor, at Baylor. The Cowboys got the best of the Bears in the Big 12 tourney. Much of OK-State’s success can be credited to the superb play of their star and projected #1 pick in the NBA draft- Cade Cunningham. The 6-foot-8 point guard is averaging 20.2 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game and he’ll easily be the best player on the floor Friday. The Flames’ junior guard Darius McGhee (15.6 PPG, 41.3% from beyond the arc) leads their methodical offense and has shown an ability to step up in big-game situations. The back and forth between McGhee and Cunningham should be fun to watch. The tempo-war should be interesting, too, since Liberty loves a slow pace (348th in tempo) and the Cowboys tend to play at light speed (43rd in tempo). Can the Flames defense do enough? Can they prevent Cunningham from taking over? Can they score enough to keep up? Well, it’s not like Liberty hasn’t been in this position before. In 2018, the Flames were the 13th seed and knocked off #4 seeded Mississippi State. They’re also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Liberty’s coach Ritchie-McKay should have his team fired up. A mentee of Virginia’s Tony Bennett, McKay has his team playing consistent, gritty, and impassioned basketball. Does Oklahoma State win? It’s very likely. But Liberty won’t be an easy out. Give me the Flames to cover in a game that’s closer than people think.
