This is Part 2 of Friday’s Midwest Bracket breakdown — in case you missed it, check out Part 1 here. Let’s get it! March MADNESS baby!
Houston -20 (-110), 1 unit: This isn’t a game I’m begging to bet big money on but I’m happy to lay a unit on the Houston Cougars. Houston has proved over and over again that they’re a contender. I can’t explain how impressive it was to watch them overcome not one but two really challenging games against Memphis. The Tigers gave it their all and had the right spot and game-plan (mainly an equally solid defensive attack) to take out Houston. But the Cougars found a way. The Cougars also find a way to routinely clobber teams and like a true psychopath, they don’t seem to mind the destruction. To me that’s what great units do– elite teams play elite no matter who they face. Houston enters Friday winning their last 7 games and of course, as the class of the American Athletic Conference. Cleveland State has won 9 of their last 11 and they’re the Horizon League champs. In that conference they thrive, but Houston is a different animal. The Vikings rank 199th on KenPom in adjusted offense, and that’s against a strength of schedule ranking that’s 337th on defense on KenPom (among the lowest in the nation). In summation, they have one of the worst offensive attacks in the country against some of the worst overall defenses. Not a good sign heading into this contest. One of the most complete teams in the nation, Houston ranks 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 6th in adjust offensive efficiency on Haslametrics. How are the Vikings going to keep pace? They can do it with a ton of motivation and a lack of motivation from the Cougars, but Houston has shown no signs that they plan on letting up. A team that I think is a good comparison to Cleveland State, Cincinnati, got crushed by Houston twice this season– once by 37 points and one by 38 points. Although those data points are tough comparisons to make in postseason play, I think the disparity is wide enough here and we know these teams well enough to assume this will be a blowout. Play on Houston for me.
Rutgers -1 (-115) and under 126 (-110), both for 1.5 units: The Scarlet Knights are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1991– for the mathematically challenged out there, that’s 30 years! Rutgers have been a part of 4 different conferences between 1991 and 2021, whoa, so Friday will mark a big day for the slight favorites. Clemson is one of the more volatile teams in the country, ranked 342nd on Haslametrics in consistency (for a data point, there are 357 total teams). Tough to predict the outcome of their games, the Tigers at times look like they were right there with the class of the ACC (which didn’t hold as much clout this year, to be sure). At other times, Clemson stumbled and couldn’t overcome teams like Syracuse, Miami, and the January version of Georgia Tech, which was a lot less impressive version than who we see now. Lately Clemson has a little positive momentum. Although they blew their ACC conference matchup against Miami, Clemson has won 7 of their last 10 games, including impressive defeats against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and the better late-season version of the Yellow Jackets. I’m favoring Rutgers here because of the spot. Clemson is either one of those teams who likes the spotlight and plays up to par or who sneakily accrues wins during the season when it’s favorable. I think they’re the latter. Their offense worries me. Only slightly above average, I think they’ll struggle against a team that “ranks in the top-25 in three of our four major defensive field goal categories” according to Haslametrics. Rutgers defense is for real and they’ll be playing with house money tonight after a 30-year tournament hiatus. Clemson plays at the 6th slowest pace of any team in the brackets and Rutgers is below average in pace, too. I’ll favor the under and the Scarlet Knights to eke out a win!
San Diego State -3 (-110), 2 units: San Diego State was a feisty team last year, ranked top 10 in both adjusted offense and defense and on the docket of many a sports bettor to hammer home wagers on the Aztecs in the 2020 NCAA Tournament. Then COVID hit and all of our wager-dreams wasted away. One year later and I’m happy to look their way again. San Diego State plays in a Mountain West Conference that’s a bit underrated. Teams like Utah State, Colorado State, and Boise State have looked really impressive throughout the season. To come away the class of that conference is no easy task. I can’t say the same about the ACC. Syracuse found its way into the tournament due to a surging end to the regular season where they won 10 out of their last 14 games. Some of those were impressive victories over teams like Clemson, a streaking North Carolina, Notre Dame and NC State. Although the ACC doesn’t hold the same gravity it once did, Syracuse has an efficient offense and is among the best (18th on Haslametrics) in creating field goal opportunities. But that’s a good matchup for the Aztecs. The 14th overall team on Haslametrics and 20th overall on KenPom, San Diego State forces teams to shoot uncomfortable shots, ranked 15th in field goal percentage allowed, and 16th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency on Haslametrics. The Orangemen will be forced to shoot from the perimeter, an area they’re not as apt, which I foresee causing real issues for their back court. The Aztecs are surely motivated to prove their value in the tournament, making this one of my favorite plays on Friday. Bet San Diego State.
Lean, West Virginia -13 (-110): I liked this number more at 12 and 12.5 but I lost it on my end and as this grows, I could look more to the Morehead State side. West Virginia has one of the most prolific offensive attacks in the country. That is, when they want to assert themselves. Full of talent throughout their roster, they’re ranked 11th on KenPom and 17th on Haslametrics in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’re particularly good at getting to the free throw line and beyond the arc, although they don’t take too many chances from 3-point land. The Mountaineers are stumbling into the postseason following 3 disappointing losses in their last 5 games to wrap up their season. Of course, they also feel like they’re an elite Big 12 team so that didn’t hurt any less. Morehead State trots into the tournament as Ohio Valley champs and while we shouldn’t be overly impressed by that accomplishment (some of the worst teams in the country are in that conference), what the Eagles were able to do against Belmont is something I am impressed by. Morehead State beat the Ohio Valley juggernaut twice– once after the Bruins snapped a 21-game winning streak. You’d think that would have put Belmont in a prime position to win, but Morehead state still got the best of their foe. They also knocked them off in the conference final. The Eagles rely on a very solid defense to overcome opponents, but that might be a huge red flag on Friday against the Mountaineers. According to ESPN, the Mountaineers are 13-0 when they hold opposing teams to 71 points or fewer and 5-9 when opponents exceed 71 points and the Eagles are 17-0 when they hold opponents to 65 points or fewer and 6-7 when opponents exceed 65 points. Morehead State plays at a significantly slower pace than West Virginia, so that could work in their favor. And since it is the postseason and defense tends to thrive, I could see Morehead State closing the gap near the end. That being said, this is still a huge difference in class for the Ohio Valley Conference Champions. West Virginia is due for some positive regression and it’s reasonable to assume they can overcome and out-class Morehead State’s efforts on defense. I’ll lean West Virginia, but watch this line.
