Temple vs Belmont -3.5 O/U 155
We all know Belmont likes to run and they shoot very well at 47.8% away and scoring 85.5 points per game on the road while only giving up 75.4 on the road which is a nice varience. Now these are great numbers, but the only problem with them is that their best wins were against Lipscomb and Murray State. Temple is lucky to make the tournament as an at large ranking 76th on Kenpom but they only shoot 43.3 % on the road at 72.8 points per game giving up 71.8 but they had a harder road in the American Athletic Conference. What I like about Temple is that they are pretty tall and can guard well down low which is where Belmont seems to score a lot of their points. Belmont runs and likes to speed up the pace but Temple has done pretty well against those teams like Memphis and Tulsa. They also have played very well against another high powered offense in Houston winning one game and only losing the other by 7.
Lean Temple +3.5 and the over
Fairleigh Dickonson vs Prairieview A&M +2 O/U 149
These 2 teams were made for each other. Fairleigh plays offense well and Prairie plays a smidge of defense. Prairie View defends the 3 well but they haven’t played teams that shoot it well in the worst conference in basketball. Both teams give up more points on the road than they score. PV shoots 43.4% on the road and FD shoots 45.1%.
Lean FD -2 and lean under 149
Wednesday 3/20
NC Central vs N Dakota State -5.5 O/U 135
Another 2 teams made for each other. Both of them were bad on the shooting about 43.5 percent and allowing about 5.5 more points then they score. NC Central is by far the worst team in the tournament ranking 303rd on Kenpom while North Dakota State ranks an honest 199th. One thing that sticks out to me here is that North Dakota State has played a much harder schedule than NC Central. The Eagles haven’t even beaten a top 260 team. I don’t remember seeing a team this bad making the tournament. One thing NC Central has done is slow the pace down and play a little better D. The under is 5-0 their last 5 games. I think due to harder strength of schedule here and the I can see North Dakota State winning this game by a little more than 5.5
Lean ND State -5.5 and under 135
Arizona State vs St Johns +1 O/U 153
Man what is up with the Pac 12. ASU beat very tough Kansas, Mississippi State and Utah State teams early in the year only to fade out in Pac 12 play. They lost some bad ones to USC and Washington State at home. They certainly almost beat Oregon though in the Pac 12 tournament going to OT and I think that says something. St Johns on the other hand is lucky to be in with their best non-conference wins against VCU and Rutgers. The red storm gives about about 2.5 more points per game on the road than they score. ASU gives up about as much points as they score on the road at 74 points per game. Both of these teams play at a fast pace at 70.5 plays per game. The one thing that sticks out to me the most here is that ASU did great on Neutral floors this year beating Mississippi State and Utah State. I also like how ASU has been on a tear lately and only losing to Oregon since Feburary 14th going 6-8. Chris Mullin is a good coach but I have to go with Bobby Hurley here in this particular spot to try and save face for the Pac 12.
ASU -1 and lean over 153.
