In this post, I’ll break down the two Sweet 16 matchups for tonight taking place in the South Region. I have 2 official CBB plays for tonight, 1 of which can be seen in this article. Click here to get all of my best plays sent to you each and every day!
Villanova(-5) vs Michigan O/U 135.5–Thursday 6:29 PM CT
Villanova cruised through the first weekend of the Tournament, racking up a 20 point win over Delaware as well as a 10 point win over Ohio State. Led by 2-time National Champion HC Jay Wright, this Wildcats team is a model of consistency and do many of the little things bettors are looking for in this stage of the year. Aside from their coaching advantage, Villanova ranks 1st in the country in Free Throw%, shoots well from the outside, and is also a very experienced team with lots of continuity. Michigan, on the other hand, is what I would describe as a very volatile team. This team alternated wins and losses over a 9 game stretch before finally getting over the hump with a win over Tennessee in their last matchup. Tennessee is built similarly to this Wildcats team(and are actually better defensively), so I certainly see the intrigue in looking towards Michigan here. Michigan is a team that lives inside the arc and doesn’t like to settle for outside jumpers, and I think Villanova’s defense is particularly vulnerable in the interior. However, Villanova did just hold a similarly built Ohio State team to 61, which gives me pause. I think this number is about right, but I’ll say this: If you like Michigan, play them in the 1st Half. If you like Villanova, play them over the full game. Michigan is certainly in good current form and is most likely to take advantage of any Villanova “rust” early in this game. However, given Villanova’s ability to make foul shots in late game situations, there is no way I could play Michigan in the full game. If anything, I have a slight lean to the Over as well. These are two very efficient offenses who get very manageable matchups. Michigan shouldn’t provide much resistance to Villanova’s desire to shoot the 3’s, and I also think Hunter Dickinson can take over this game for the Wolverines. The worry here is pace(Villanova runs at one of the slowest paces in the country), but I tend to think efficiency and good matchups trump tempo concerns. That being said, nothing in this game made my card for today.
Arizona(-1.5) vs Houston O/U 145.5–8:59 PM CT
You simply can’t deny how well Houston is playing entering this matchup. The Cougars have won each of their last 5 games by an average of 16 PPG; that includes an 18-point win over Memphis as well as a 15 point win over Illinois in their last matchup. Houston has the major coaching edge with veteran HC and 2021 Final 4 participant Kelvin Sampson leading the way. Contrastly, Arizona is led by 1st year HC Tommy Lloyd. Houston takes care of the basketball(1.5 assist/turnover ratio) and is a good 2-point shooting team. While outside shooting is not their speciality, this is the best offensive rebounding team in CBB. We saw Arizona get decimated in this facet of the game against TCU in their last matchup; they can try to make adjustments over a 3 day stretch, but things are only going to get tougher for them in that department in this matchup. Arizona is undoubtedly talented, but this is also the 4th youngest team in the country. I’m not going to cherry-pick stats to try to make this Arizona offense look bad; they shoot the ball almost 50% from the floor, take care of the basketball at an equal rate as Houston, and can also grab offensive rebounds at a very high clip themselves. However, considering Houston’s current form defensively, I believe this is Arizona’s toughest test this season. This game also takes place in San Antonio, a mere 3 hour drive for the Cougars(this is not a very big part of my handicap, but it’s certainly not a disadvantage). I’m going to isolate this game in the 1H and make a 1u play on Houston 1H +1 rather than Houston FG given that Houston shoots less than 67% from the free-throw line, while Arizona shoots 74%. That absolutely matters in a game that’s likely to come down to the wire. I also think that some of the intangibles of this matchup(location, coaching, experience level) point towards Houston playing truer to their form early. However, Arizona has superior talent, and for such a young team, this team comes through in the final minutes of games. I like Houston to take a lead into the Half and for this game to come down to the wire late.
