LSU vs Michigan State -6.5 O/U 148.5
Is there any question that Michigan State is the best Big 10 team this year? Kenpom sure thinks so. The big 10 was the the deepest conference in the tournament with 8 teams in, but that doesn’t mean they have the best team per say. State might not be the best team in the country according to many power ratings but they have been amazing this year and even more amazing withstanding the injuries to Kyle Ahrens recently and Josh Langford earlier in the season. Sparty is 23-9 ATS as a favorite this year. Let’s look at this match-up. Both teams have massive offenses who average over 45% shooting on the road. The biggest discrepancy here to me is that Michigan State has a top 8 defense while LSU only ranks 49th which may be why they couldn’t cover their small spreads in the first 2 Tournament games. We all know that coach Wade is suspended for LSU and Tony Benford isn’t exactly a great interim. Tom Izzo is probably the best NCAA tournament coach in all of college basketball so you must account for that discrepancy. Even more telling on who should own this match-up is that Michigan State has the better offense ranking 4th on Kenpom to LSU’s 13th. Now my raw numbers have Michigan State winning 82-74. Everything that I said screams Michigan State but what keeps me off of this bet is that LSU performs extremely well as a dog being 6-1-1 ATS this year. I like Michigan State to win this game and if I don’t take the spread, I will probably use it in a ML Parlay
Lean Michigan State -6 or bet small. Use in ML Parlay with UNC
Auburn vs North Carolina -5 O/U 164
This game should be very high scoring. North Carolina has the 8th best offense in the tournament and the 11th best defense according to Kenpom. They shoot 46.4% away from home and out score opponents by 12 points on the road as well. Auburn on the other hand is coming off of a hot performance against Kansas. They jumped the Jayhawks to a 25 point lead at half but yet only won by 15. Auburn shot a crazy 52.5% last game which is way above their road average of 43.2% Looking at other road stats Auburn only outscores their opponents by 1.1 point on the road. In saying all that, Auburn is the second hottest team who hasn’t lost a game since February 23rd at Kentucky. We have to look at the actual match-up here. Auburn seriously relies on the 3 point shot and about exactly half of their shots are 3 pointers. They are hitting many of them but when they face teams that can defend the 3 they could be in a bit of trouble. North Carolina has the formula to beat this team if Auburn isn’t hitting because they are top in the ACC in rebounding the ball. the Tarheels also defend the 3 better than Kansas did allowing 33% from all teams. Auburn has the 6th best offense in the league because of their shooting but they will get killed inside against North Carolina’s big guys like Nassir Little and Cam Johnson. UNC ranks 18th in height while Auburn ranks 206th. Where the rubber meets the road, as long as UNC can stop the 3 they cover this spread easily. As far as the total of 164, I really can’t trust either side of it being that my numbers have UNC winning 88-80 and if Auburn is cold then it will be hard to get to that number.
North Carolina – 5
Virginia Tech vs Duke -7.5 O/U 144.5
Well that was pretty scaring for all the Duke backers this tournament wasn’t it? We have an ACC match-up that is somewhat familiar here. These teams have already met this year in Blacksburg with Duke losing by 5 but we all should know that game was without Zion. Looking at this spread, if Duke lost by 5 points to Va tech, wouldn’t that mean that Zion is worth 8.5 points to the spread? Duke is an amazing team a we all can see with Zion but they are vulnerable shooting the 3 ranking only 329th in 3 point percentage. Duke is also not great at the free throw line shooting a 251st best 68.7% This is a pretty big spread for a team that can’t seem to do those 2 things well. Duke ranks 6th on offense and 7th on Defense via Kenpom but Virginia Tech isn’t too far back ranking 12th and 19th on Kenpom respectively. When Virginia Tech played Duke, they were also without a key player in Justin Robinson who shot over 55% last game against Virginia. He has to account for something right? Lastly, the Hokies really do not have 1 big weakness and are pretty solid all around the ball. This is a large spread but the huge question is, do you really want to get in the way of Duke after almost being ousted from the tournament?
Lean Va Tech +7.5
Houston vs Kentucky -2.5 O/U 134.5
So this game is pretty much dependent on one thing. Will PJ Washington play? We saw Kentucky struggle against Wofford for most of the game until the last few minutes without him. Houston has been great this year and everyone’s sleeper team to make the final 4 but there is one problem. They are not that tall. If Houston is missing their shots, they are in danger of being out-rebounded by a tall team like Kentucky. We seen this happen before against UCF and Cincinnati in the AAC finals. Houston also doesn’t shoot all that great ranking only 104th in FG efficiency. Houston’s defense has been a beast though this year ranking 12th on Kenpom and I think this is the main reason why they outscore their opponents by 15 on the road. Well that and the fact that they are in an easier division. Kentucky when healthy shoots an amazing 46.2% on the road, outscoring their opponents by about 4 points or so. Kentucky has the 11th ranked offense and 9th ranked defense in league but I am just not sure it is enough to cover 2.5 without their best player. If both teams are healthy, I have this game on raw numbers, Kentucky winning 68-65. Without the injury information, I have to most likely pass on having a big side here but seeing that both team splay slower trhan average with Houston at 66.2 possessions per game and Kentucky at 65.7, I have to look to the under in this game. Being that this game may be so tight at the end, I would rather invest in the first half under myself.
First half under 63
