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Thursday:
West Virginia vs Maryland +2.5 O/U 138.5 – Birmingham AL
Believe it or not, this should be a very solid game to watch. Maryland has more advantages from mid-range and from deep. The Terps rank 61st in adjusted three point percentage while West Virginia ranks 96th defending it. Neither team is all that good inside, but Maryland should have the rebounding advantage here. West Virginia tends to get sloppy with the ball turning it over 18.5% of possessions. Take the points but maybe wait it out some for a three.
Lean Maryland +2.5 – 2.5 stars
Furman vs Virginia -5.5 O/U 132.5 – Orlando FL
This could be a dangerous game for the Wahoos here. They seem to struggle more vs defensive oriented teams though. I am a big concerned that the Paladins rank number one from two point land. This team shoots a lot of threes, and Virginia is a bit weak from downtown ranking 178th in opponent three point FG%. Haslametrics has this as only a 4 point spread. I could see Furman being in this game just based on their hot offense ranking 33rd in adjusted efficiency. Also keep in mind that Virginia lost 6’8 forward Ben Vander Plas who averages 5 rebounds per game with a hand injury. Take Furman.
Furman +5.5 – 2.5 stars – sprinkle ML +230
Utah State vs Missouri PK O/U 154
Utah State is the better rebounding team for sure, but Missouri has had the much harder schedule in the SEC. Both of these teams play a faster paced game and shoot a lot of three pointers. All the numbers give the Aggies a large advantage where it is important. They rank 26th from three point land while Missouri ranks 247th defending it. The Aggies rank 45th in near proximity shots and the Tigers rank 282nd defending that as well. Yikes. Missouri just can’t rebound the ball ranking 354th in that department while Utah State ranks 88th. To add even more pain to the punishment, Missouri has depth issues due to injuries and that could hurt them if in foul trouble. I like Utah State here and I think that they win convincingly.
Utah State PK – 2.5 stars
A&M CC vs Alabama -23.5 O/U 155.5 – Birmingham AL
This game has a feisty A&M team that is probably pretty happy to make this tournament. In saying that, they are playing with house money here against an Alabama team that has expectations though the roof as the number 1 seed. Alabama should be able to decide the score in this game being that they have all of the matchup advantages, but I do not know if they want to win by massive margin or not. There is also a chance that Bama has a rough start after going through the full SEC tournament. I will lean Corpus Christy 1st half.
Lean A&M CC 1st half +12
Charleston vs San Diego State -5.5 O/U 141.5 – Orlando FL
One would think that Charleston might have a slight home court advantage being a six hour drive away as well as a lower seed. Maybe a point or so is worth it. San Diego State has a big near proximity advantage ranking 42nd near the rim to Charleston’s defense at 279th. My big problem with San Diego State is that they are a bad road team only shooting 47.5% effective FG% away from home to Charleston at 50.3%. I really do not have a lean in this game. This is a very solid number.
Princeton vs Arizona -14.5 O/U 154.5 – Sacramento CA
Arizona fans travel well and I expect a home court advantage in California. The Cats will also have all kinds of advantages over Princeton both inside and out. I expect to see more defense from Arizona that they have shown in the past just due to how I am viewing them recently. Princeton is a far from solid team and they have not beaten anybody. There are a few NBA players for Arizona and they make a showing in this first game. The efficiency sites says -13 but the spread is -14.5. It’s about correct. Maybe a first half look isn’t a bad one at the -8.
Strong Lean Arizona -14.5
UC Santa Barbara vs Baylor -11 O/U 143 – Denver CO
UC Santa Barbara is a pretty solid team and they might get some cheers in Denver Colorado due to all of the Zags fans being there. Baylor has a very solid offense ranking 53rd in effective FG%. They should be able to score anywhere vs the Gauchos, but UC Santa Barbara will slow this game down some only ranking 312th in average possession length. I wish UC Santa Barbara could rebound the ball better on offense because that is where Baylor could give up some second chance points. Baylor has been a terrible team away from home ranking 347th in the nation in away splits. I could see a rough start for both teams shooting the ball. I kind of like the 1st half under some but I will wait and see if this total goes up.
1st half under 66.5 for 1.5 stars but wait to see if a 67 pops
NC State vs Creighton -5.5 O/U 148 – Denver CO
Ah NC State. You beat Virginia Tech, Duke, and Miami this year scoring over 80 points, yet you lose to Clemson three times and Syracuse on the road. This NC State team is pretty tough for me to read, but I also know that they have no defense to show. As good as big man DJ Burns can be on offense, this team doesn’t seem very interested on both sides of the ball. Creighton has advantages down low with Kalkbrenner who should be able to score at will. Trey Alexander shoots over 44% from three while two others for Creighton shoot over 36%. I think Creighton wins this game with margin.
Creighton -5.5 -110 – 2 stars
