If you didn’t get your bets in earlier in the week, it’s best to look at the “stale” lines (or lines that haven’t moved much). You’ve already missed the best of most numbers, so the edge may not be there anymore. The best late-week or gameday options you have are to either go contrarian, identify any abnormality not accounted for in the line, or hope to be on the right side of split action. Full disclosure, although I review week one stats I rely mostly on last year’s numbers to avoid over reactions in week two.
Liberty (-4) at Troy Sat. 6pm
Large majority of $ is on Liberty to cover the 4 and go over the total of 62, both with good reason. Troy’s defense was weak last year giving up almost 26 ppg, but should be bolstered two Power 5 LB transfers this year. The strength of Troy’s offense is their passing game coming into the year, but Liberty returns a defense that was 12th vs Pass, and 11th total defense.
What forced my hand in this game is a prop at BetOnline, WHICH IS MY FAVORITE PROP OF THE WEEKEND!!! 3 straight scores by either team? YES-323/ NO+225. That’s the abnormality that has me thinking the oddsmakers had this one right, favoring LIB but expecting a tight one. Do they expect Troy to score 3 unanswered?!? I could see Liberty, perhaps, but I doubt it because Troy is not a bad team.
The line hasn’t budged so that tells me respected $ is on Troy. An experienced OL, defense, and a highly touted QB has me liking Liberty -4. So I’ll hedge my prop play with Liberty -4 assuming props-makers think Liberty may dominate this one because I can’t see Troy doing it.
Liberty -4 1.13u and 3 straight scores by either team NO +225 2u
Utah (-7) at BYU Sat. 9:15pm
87% of $ on Utah for The Holy War and for good reason. I can see BYU hanging around at home for awhile but the Cougs come into this one extraordinarily banged up, especially on the defensive side. We saw Arizona almost come back for the upset last week and let’s face it, Utah is much better. BYU will be looking to slow this one down as much as possible to keep that defense off the field.
Utah -7 (-111) 1.1u/ UN 49 (-105) 1.05u
NC State at Mississippi ST Total 55 1/2
This total moved down to 55 1/2 from 56 but is juiced to the over. Respected $ has come in to move it, but I can’t see this one being a low scoring game so the move may have been a syndicate bait and switch. NC ST’s defense is not bad, it’s just not consistent. MISS ST’s defense was mid-tier last year, but 105th vs Pass. NC ST wants to pass with QB Leary healthy and in his second year in the system. Mike Leach’s squad should also be ready and able now that he’s had a full offseason in his second year with the program.
NC ST/ MISS ST OV 55 1/2 (-115) 1.15u
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