Appalachian State opens their season in Charlotte tonight against East Carolina with high expectations in what should be a packed house. While this game is in a neutral setting, I wouldn’t be surprised if the ECU crowd has a larger presence. APP ST comes in as a sizeable favorite so the question in this game is, can they get margin on an ECU team that the market seems to like?
The market has pushed this spread down to APP ST -9 with 67% of the money on ECU to cover this one. The total has gotten pushed down from it’s 61 1/2 open to 55 1/2. Looking at the team totals, APP ST is at 34 1/2 while ECU is at 23 1/2, an 11 point difference similar to where the books opened this one at -10 1/2. I’m looking to go against the market and stick with the odds makers original assessment in an opportunity to buy low on APP ST and here’s why…
APP ST comes in off a season where they were 6th in the country in rushing the ball and 23rd in total offense. Teams that can wear you down with the run can keep teams that want to go fast off the field. They are capable of putting up points and I don’t see ECU stopping them off a year where they were 102nd in the nation in total defense.
I realize people are down on APP ST QB Chase Brice, but he’s faced much stiffer competition in his college career at Duke and Clemson before that. Additionally, APP ST has a veteran defense that was 18th in the country last year that has speed to keep the high scoring ECU offense at bay. APP ST will look to keep their foot on the pedal in this one as they will be heading to Miami next week, in what will be a shootout. I’m looking for APP ST to let the country know the powerhouses in the Sun Belt should not be ignored.
APP ST -9 1.1u
