Early game that has the Falcons visiting the Bulls in what has been a disappointing season for both teams. Both have shown flashes with BGST upsetting Minnesota earlier this season and BUFF with a couple of narrow defeats when they’ve faced better competition in CCAR and WMICH. That being said, Bowling Green’s season has turned for the worst since the win against MINN, with a really bad loss at home to Akron, 35-20.
There is concern for Buffalo covering as it seems they don’t get up for lesser competiton, almost losing against Ohio. What I like about this game is the matchup. The Bulls are poor vs the run, 110th, but the Falcons come in with the 105th ranked Rushing offense. BGST’s pass defense is actually pretty good, but they have trouble stopping the run, as they are 127th Rush DEF YPG. More good news for Buffalo who wants to run, 31st Rush OFF YPG. Bowling Green wants to pass and Buffalo has fared well against teams who want to throw (held WMICH to 24 points) but are 83rd v the pass. Teams that run tend to wear their opponents down as the games go along, but with BGST’s ability to pass (65th), I worry about a back door cover.
So I’m looking towards the BUFF 1H -7 (-120) in this one. Bowling Green has been down by at least 7 in 3 of their L4 in the 1H, and would be 4 out of L4 but they lost that 1H by 6. Those were all against MAC competition and they ended up covering 2 of those 4 for the whole game. 87% of the money on BUFF for this one, but also 84% of the the tickets. I’m taking Buffalo to cover the 1H in this one.
BUF 1H -7 (-120) 1.2u
