161/162 Wake Forest (-5) at Boston College Total 64
Seeing money coming in on BC, taking this line from it’s -5.5 open to as low as -4.5 in some books. That is likely due to the cold, slightly wet, and very windy day ahead for these pass heavy squads. Although BC has been pass heavy since the return of their stud QB, they have a shown in the past they can be successful on the ground.
Looking at the SDQL database for teams in the situation Wake Forest is in… Since 2014, when Dave Clawson became coach for the Demon Deacons, when we have a team who is an away favorite off a loss of 21 or more, where they threw for over 300 yards but had their previous opponent rush for over 300, these teams are 4-0 SU and ATS. Granted the opponents in these games (UCONN, NMEX, etc) were truly bad teams which BC is not.
So then we look at the total. When BC has had a home game during QB Jurkovec’s tenure with a total of 64 or higher, the lone game went under. And it was versus this same WF squad in 2019, with a 24-27 loss at home. The market agrees the under is the play moving this total from it’s 65 open down to 64. We’ve seen in high wind games 15mph+ (>24mph gusts expected), that offenses have a harder time getting the ball in the end zone and FG’s are pretty much an afterthought. These are two teams that have both struggled to run the ball as well lately, give me the Under 64!
161 WAKE UN 64 1u
